On the far right, as well as in some progressive parties, it has long been common practice to blame the Russian attack on Ukraine on NATO expansionism in Eastern Europe. They often pointed to a influential bearer of this analysis, the realist John Mearsheimer (University of Chicago). Although there was also something miraculous that this political scientist was eagerly cited by Dutch conservatives. Ten years ago, for example, Mearsheimer denounced the influence of the Israel lobby on politics in the US, an indigestible view for many conservatives there.
In the Netherlands, the then VVD leader Frits Bolkestein already warned against the NATO membership of former Eastern Bloc countries in the 1990s, because Russia then felt “humiliated”. You also heard it later from opponents of the association agreement with Ukraine.
And three weeks before the war, on February 3, three parties – PVV, FVD, JA21 – still voted against a motion by Caroline van der Plas (BBB) expressing ‘unconditional support’ for ‘the sovereignty of Ukraine’. The same parties, supplemented by SP, PvdD and BIJ1, requested the government to also ‘to refrain from arms supplies to Ukraine’.
Reality is something that happens in wartime – most of these parties believed at the time that you should not threaten Russia unnecessarily.
Only: the choice of Sweden and Finland over the weekend to join NATO after all, shows that they interpret the situation differently after years of careful maneuvering with Russia.
Like The Economist Monday wrote: Sweden and Finland join NATO not to threaten Russia but because they feel threatened by Russia.
It means that all of Northern Europe – some call it ‘our boreal world’ – is now joining the analysis that Putin deserves resistance rather than understanding.
And it is interesting how Dutch politics, where they prefer to talk about purchasing power than about the war, deal with this. The middle parties expressed support. It was also noticeable that JA21 foreman Joost Eerdmans in Buitenhof called the choice of Sweden and Finland ‘good and understandable’; his party did not want to supply weapons to Ukraine three weeks before the invasion. Jasper van Dijk (SP) told BNR on Monday that he still fears an escalation of the war. Wilders and Baudet were not yet out.
This is an unforeseen development, especially for the latter. Three weeks before the war he said in the room“It would be best to strongly advise Ukraine to become a neutral state, like Finland (-).”
His reality is also clearly not able to withstand the wartime.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of 17 May 2022