Russian army is running out of precision weapons – which is bad news for Ukraine

The invasion of Ukraine should have been the war in which the Russian military could show that it is as high-tech as the Americans. It became a deception for Moscow. After 76 days of fighting, the bottom of Russia’s toolbox with precision weapons, weapons that are guided to their target by GPS or laser, is already in sight.

It is yet another indication that the Russian armed forces are not as formidable and formidable as has been thought for decades in the West. After weeks of reports of a threat of precision weapons shortages on the Russian side, the Pentagon and the British Ministry of Defense confirmed on Monday that Russia’s arsenal has indeed been severely thinned.

“Russia’s stock of precision weapons is likely to be severely depleted,” the British said, citing information from their intelligence services. “The invasion of Ukraine has revealed deficiencies in Russia’s ability to conduct large-scale precision attacks.”

“What we see is that they have fired a lot of their precision weapons,” said a senior Pentagon official about the Kalibr cruise missiles, among other things. “They’re having problems with their stock and with the replacement of the precision weapons.” According to the US, the latter is partly caused by the sanctions against Russia. As a result, the Russians can no longer obtain important electronic parts.

US surprised

“The sanctions are having an effect on Russia’s defense industry and its ability to replenish the amount of precision weapons,” the US military official said. It is unknown how many cruise missiles, guided bombs and missiles and other high-tech weapons Russia had prior to the invasion of Ukraine.

Until a week ago, the Russians had fired 2,125 high-tech weapons, according to the Pentagon. The current inventory issues show that they don’t have a lot left in-house.

This small Russian stock must also have surprised the US. The Americans have much more experience with the use of precision weapons. By comparison, in less than a month, the Americans fired some 800 Tomahawk cruise missiles during the 2003 Iraq invasion alone. In addition, thousands of other precision weapons were used without the bottom of the American stockpile in sight.

For 20 years, Russia has been trying to catch up to the US’s great lead in modern, accurate weapons with a major modernization of its armed forces. A highlight for Moscow was the intervention in Syria, when the Russians first used cruise missiles in a war in 2015. That moment came nearly a quarter of a century after the Americans fired their Tomahawks for the first time in Iraq.

Mariupol

The looming Russian shortage of precision weapons does not bode well for Ukrainians, especially the population. More than is the case now, the West expects, Moscow will resort to ‘dumb bombs’: ordinary, old-fashioned bombs dropped on a large scale during the Second World War. This is already happening in Mariupol, where the Ukrainians are still holding out at the Azovstal plant.

“They keep hitting Mariupol with a bunch of stupid bombs,” the Pentagon said. “With the conflict going on longer than expected, the Russians have been forced to use readily available but outdated ammunition. It is less reliable, less accurate and easier to intercept.”

“The Air Force too has fallen back on throwing inaccurate, ‘dumb’ ammunition into urban areas,” said British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, referring to Russian artillery practices of haphazardly targeting towns and villages.

Syria scenario

A repeat of the Russian airstrikes in Syria, where the Russians bombed the rebels in the cities with mainly ordinary bombs. The longer the war lasts, the greater the risk of massive destruction and many civilian deaths, especially in eastern Ukraine, where the Russians are trying to take the Donbas.

“You’re going to get a lot more cities that look like Mariupol,” predicted Dara Masicott, an expert on the Russian military and affiliated with the US think tank Rand, in a conversation with the United States. Moscow Times†

If the Russians had followed the American example and converted their old-fashioned bombs into precision weapons, this would not have been necessary. After the 1991 Gulf War in Iraq, when the vast majority of US ammunition consisted of ordinary bombs, the US decided to turn these ammunition into high-tech weapons.

The bombs were provided with a new ‘shell’, including a tail fin and electronics, which ensured that the bomb can be guided to its target with GPS. For just over 20,000 euros, an ordinary bomb was turned into a precision weapon. It is a much cheaper solution than purchasing a Tomahawk cruise missile, a weapon that costs more than 1.5 million euros each. Manufacturer Boeing has so far sold 430 thousand of these ‘shells’ (Joint Direct Attack Munitions), most of them to the US military.