With the elections in Andalusia called for June 19, there was no clearer pre-campaign scenario than the Seville Fair this week. Not a single leader missed the appointment and the greeting between Juanma Moreno Bonilla Y Macarena Olona raised special interest, given the possibility that in two months they could become government partners. The PP continues to trust in a result that would double that of the last elections (around 40% of the vote and close to 50 seats) in order to govern alone. Vox has a very different perception and alleges that “the pollsters of the PP & rdquor; they have already played tricks to the group now led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo.
It happened in Castilla y León, they say in the dome of Santiago Abascal, and now the scheme could be repeated in the Andalusian community. Also in the PP of Alfonso Fernandez Manueco they insist on “not repeating mistakes of the past” recognizing that they inflated expectations too much and ended up forming the first coalition with Vox. The election of Olona as a candidate places the ultra-conservative party in a different scenario from the previous ones.
She is a well-known candidate, one of the main leaders of the formation, with an accredited career as a State lawyer and an expert in legal matters and a key player in parliamentary activity. For the first time Vox will not trust the entire result to its initials, but will give full prominence to the head of the list. The left He trusts that Olona mobilizes his voters due to the rejection he generates and the PP believes that he will be able to retain as many others for representing a “safer and more moderate” option.
In Vox, however, they believe that Olona “will add” and will attract a greater number of voters, trusting that, as in other electoral appointments, the campaign will be the most important moment to activate or convince the doubtful. The Vox campaign will go in two directions: the rural voter and the working class, for which he will compete with the left, —“this is the town fair & rdquor; said the candidate, even calling the unions “traitors to the working class & rdquor; & rdquor; — and retaining the voters who already in 2018 opted for her option and not for the PP ballot.
Vox dome fountains distrust the credibility of the polls who in recent days are clearly betting on ‘the Feijóo effect’. At the national level they assure that an important part of the voter who disputes with the PP is not clear about the pactist position of the new conservative leader, who defends reaching out to the Government of Pedro Sánchez as happened with the economic proposal that Genoa prepared and sent to Moncloa without the PP stamp. In Andalusia, they assure that Moreno Bonilla trusts figures that are “very complicated to achieve” and they deny the figures published weeks ago.
Some assume that Vox would only grow two or three seats to the range of 15 or 16 (four years ago it broke into the Andalusian Parliament with 12). In the studies handled by Abascal’s formation (in the case of Castilla y León he hit the nail on the head with the result) expectations are much higher.
Although they avoid giving specific figures to The Newspaper of Spain, “We are not going to say outright that we double that possibility & rdquor ;, they point out, they do not hide that they would be well above that number. In fact, many of the published surveys point to the possibility of political extinction of Citizens (or survival with two or three seats) compared to the 21 it obtained in 2018.
Vox rejects the idea that Moreno Bonilla is going to be so close to the absolute majority (fixed at 57 deputies) and insist on the risk of campaigning as Mañueco did before in Castilla y León, assuming that it would add more than the left and would force Vox to abstain. In that community, the ultra party today presides over the regional courts and has four seats in the regional government. Precisely his vice president, Juan García-Gallardo, goes to Madrid on Monday for a breakfast supported by the senior staff of his party.
As this newspaper published, Vox intends to enter the next Andalusian government. Although the PP manages the possibility of forced abstention in the event that Moreno Bonilla has a very positive result, in the Abascal leadership they recognize that his votes are necessary and they contemplate entering the administration.
“Our voters would not understand anything else, as happened in Castilla y León & rdquor ;, they assure, making a clear distinction with respect to the Community of Madrid, where the candidate and president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, is also a claim for the Vox voter, which makes it impossible to “put stones in the way & rdquor ;. “One thing is Ayuso and another is Mañueco or Moreno”they affirmed in the environment of Abascal.