Hi Eline, Macron’s victory turned out to be bigger than expected and European leaders were eager to congratulate him. Yet Macron has fared a lot worse than five years ago. Is this really a win for him?
Macron has won a convincing majority, and the distance from Le Pen is greater than expected. But it was indeed a limited party last night. In 2017 Macron was a relative newcomer who managed to unleash a lot of positive energy, a vote for him was a vote of hope. Now, for many voters, it’s a vote for the lesser of two evils.
“I had planned to take a look at the Eiffel Tower around 10:30 pm, where Macron’s supporters were gathered, but by then it was already emptying. Macron himself was also quite subdued in his speech about his victory, because he has quite a few caveats. In addition to being a vote against for many people, turnout was low, his score is lower than five years ago, and the far right in France has continued to grow.
“But it is understandable that much of Europe has reacted with enthusiasm to his victory. Apart from those caveats, it makes a world of difference to the EU whether they are dealing with President Macron or President Le Pen. Le Pen wants to elevate French law above European law and wants to get rid of the euro. Under her leadership, France would go after Orbán’s Hungary in the EU.’
How come Macron has done better than expected, has he been able to convince left-wing voters?
‘I think it mainly shows that the fear of the far right is greater than the anti-Macron sentiment. At the same time, there has been a real hunt for the left-wing voter since the first round. Macron has been out and about much more than before the first round, particularly to places where voters had overwhelmingly voted for the radical leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon. He has put more emphasis on climate policy and, among other things, made promises about raising the retirement age to convince them.’
The turnout was downright low at about 72 percent. What does that say about these elections?
That will certainly be a concern for Macron, even if it follows a longer trend of declining turnout figures. The presidential elections are the most important for the French, so it says something that that problem also plays here. Voter research shows that many voters did not feel represented by either candidate, which is reflected in the turnout. Not voting is a way for some of those who stay at home to express their dissatisfaction.
Macron acknowledged that in his victory speech. He said he wanted to be a president for all the French, and not to leave anyone behind. He wants to introduce a purchasing power law before the summer, in which, among other things, pensions will be increased, which is a clear sign to the French who voted for Le Pen for that reason. At the same time, he also had a message for left-wing voters: France must become a frontrunner in climate policy.’
Parliamentary elections will be held in June, what can we expect?
Mélenchon is already announcing those elections as a third round. He already said before Sunday’s results that he wants to become prime minister, regardless of which of the two would win the presidency. He hopes to be able to enforce this with a good result in the parliamentary elections.
Le Pen also looked ahead to June yesterday. She celebrated yesterday’s large number of votes as a victory, with a good result in June she hopes to counterbalance Macron. It remains to be seen whether that will succeed, the parliamentary elections in France will be held in two rounds at district level. In the past you saw that the share of seats for Le Pen therefore lagged behind the percentage of votes she obtained.
In 2017 Macron immediately won a majority in parliament. If that doesn’t work now and Mélenchon gets a good result, they may have to work together while they are far apart. Macron himself has blown up the political center, leaving the only remaining opposition on the flanks. He now faces the difficult task of uniting a deeply divided country.’