The challenge between the Italian and Felix Auger-Aliassime starts on equal terms, the one with more pace and continuity will win. Here are some reasons why blue can smile
Making predictions in this splendid and absurd Roland Garros, we have now understood, is not of much use, but the match in the quarter-finals between Flavio Cobolli and Felix Auger-Aliassime could still be defined as equal, even in normal conditions. The ranking in this Slam matters little or nothing, but what the Roman “pays” in terms of ranking and prestige to the Canadian, he recovers with his greater aptitude on clay and with what direct comparisons say.
Felix’s attitude
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Felix Auger-Aliassime, first time in the top eight in Paris, seeded number 4 and virtual fourth player in the world (whatever happens, he will be there in the rankings on Monday at the end of the tournament), has won all nine career tournaments on hard courts or indoors, never any on clay, which is not exactly his favorite surface. Of course, on clay he lost three finals, two when he was really young in 2019 (he was born in 2000) and one in 2024, in another fairly crazy tournament in Madrid, when he was defeated in the final by Andrey Rublev. At Caja Mágica that year, both Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz were injured and retired almost simultaneously. There was a moment when Auger-Aliassime looked like he could become strong, very strong, even on clay. At the end of 2021, in fact, the Canadian had entrusted himself to the care of Toni Nadal, Rafa’s uncle, to revive a career that had stalled a bit after the initial premises. The results were seen immediately. In 2022 Auger-Aliassime, in the clay court season, made quarters in Barcelona, Estoril, Madrid and Rome and at Roland Garros he battled for five sets, in the round of 16, with Rafael Nadal, who then won the tournament.
the land of Flavius
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In short, Auger-Aliassime is not someone who plays badly on clay, but certainly Cobolli, number 12 in the world (he will be 10 on Monday in the event of a semi-final), has more aptitude than him on clay. Natural: the Roman was born and raised on this surface, over time he then learned to play (very well) also on concrete and grass. Flavio has a very clay-court approach and fundamentals, a rhythmic game made up of long rallies, with a serve that is very suitable for this surface. Not having a “definitive” shot, despite having an excellent forehand and backhand, Cobolli is good at changing the pace, making very few mistakes, especially in the phases of the match where it matters most. In this Roland Garros the 24-year-old Roman actually only had one missed pass, with Svajda, still taking home the match without suffering too much. Auger-Aliassime has a much more hard court game, he loves faster surfaces (indoors he is only inferior to Sinner and Alcaraz when he is well), he doesn’t particularly like prolonged rallies (which is why he often tends to shorten them, accumulating free throws) and his serve is too “flat” for red.
direct clashes
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Flavio is ahead two-nil in the direct clashes with Felix Auger-Aliassime, both won on what should be the Canadian’s favorite surface, namely hard court. Both date back to 2024, with Cobolli winning in Acapulco and the 1000 in Montreal. There is another precedent, let’s say “unofficial”, that of the Hopman Cup played in Bari, won again by Cobolli, at the end of a wonderful match. The Roman’s game has always bothered the Canadian, who is perhaps superior to the Italian at peaks, but Cobolli probably, especially in the past year, has found a continuity during matches and tournaments (not all, perhaps) that Auger-Aliassime is unable to have.
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