‘The stuff around us is a rapidly growing carbon time bomb’

“Take this sheet of paper,” says environmental economist Kaan Hidiroglu (31) as he points to a page in his notebook that is open in front of him on the table. “This paper contains cellulose from trees. But what else?” He runs his fingers over the softly shiny surface and answers his own question: “Fossil carbon.”

The production of paper uses chemicals, such as coatings and bleaches, that come from fossil raw materials, says Hidiroglu. For example, most of what we use every day – from plastic bottles to buildings, roads and electronics – contains fossil carbon to a greater or lesser extent. “This plastic bottle, for example,” he says, now pointing to a water bottle next to the notebook. “It consists of about 70 percent fossil carbon.”

Thanks to his PhD research at the University of Groningen, Hidiroglu can name the chemical composition for a lot of products. Behind his computer screen, over the past four years he has mapped out how much fossil carbon is stored worldwide in our products and infrastructure. He also looked at what this means for achieving our climate goals – because the carbon in our things will sooner or later be released again as harmful emissions.

Fossil carbon is carbon that was stored deep in the earth millions of years ago – and that we now bring up again with derricks and excavators. “When we burn that carbon to generate energy, it is released as, among other things, carbon dioxide – a greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming,” he explains. We know this principle well from the emissions released when burning coal, oil or gas directly. If we store carbon in products, we simply postpone those emissions.

Achievable climate goals

In this way, everyday objects together form a “carbon time bomb” – an aspect that, according to Hidiroglu, is often overlooked when politicians talk about climate goals such as climate neutrality in 2050. Hidiroglu’s mission is to make it clear to policymakers that the time bomb is ticking, and to find ways to slow down the clock so that climate goals remain achievable.

“The assignment I was given at the beginning of my PhD was to determine the size of the time bomb and use models to predict when it might go off,” he says. “If we know how much fossil carbon is stored in products and how long it remains in those products, we also know what emissions await us in the future.” Hidiroglu opens a printout of his dissertation, which is also on the table. As he scrolls through, countless notes and highlights emerge. He gets stuck on a page.

“This shows the life story of carbon between 1995 and 2019,” he says, presenting a graph. “During that period, 8.4 billion tons of fossil carbon was built into products and infrastructure worldwide.” That sounds like a huge amount, but compared to global CO₂ emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels, it is still relatively little. In 2019 alone, we burned almost as much carbon as we stored in stuff in 24 years.

Working with huge data sets

However, we are using more and more fossil raw materials in our goods. Between 1995 and 2019, the amount of carbon stored in products almost tripled. This means that the carbon time bomb is growing faster every year.

Hidiroglu worked with massive data sets that show how goods flow globally from one sector to another, within and between countries. The environmental economist has converted these product flows into the amount of carbon they contain.

The analysis shows that about half of the carbon stored in products between 1995 and 2019 is still locked up – because many of those products, such as buildings and roads, are still in use. Until 2050, about 70 percent of this will be released into the environment, Hidiroglu calculated.

The other half of those products have now been discarded. Of that, about a third ended up in landfills, a third was recycled and the rest ended up in the environment. By the latter, Hidiroglu means that people dump them in nature reserves or oceans, or simply burn them in incinerators.

Slow down the clock

We cannot completely avoid fossil carbon in products and therefore we cannot prevent the carbon time bomb from ever going off. But there are ways to slow down the clock on the carbon time bomb, Hidiroglu says. “If you use a product for longer, you postpone emissions. If you use something for ten years rather than five years, the carbon will only end up in the waste stream five years later. And during that time you also need fewer new materials.”

Recycling helps a little, but not enough. “With recycling you always lose quality, so you still need new plastic,” explains Hidiroglu. “Suppose you need ten units of crude oil for a product – that means ten units of carbon contained in it. If you manage to recycle two units, you still need eight new units to produce.” According to him, it is best to combine recycling with a longer lifespan.

Good waste management can also save time. “If we can store waste in such a way that it hardly comes into contact with the environment – ​​so that nothing leaks or breaks down – then you delay the moment when that carbon ends up back in the atmosphere.”

For Hidiroglu personally, his promotion meant a change in perspective. “It has changed how I look at products: how I use them, how long I use them, and the choices I make when buying.” He points to his notebook again. “Even with something as simple as this paper. If you know what’s in it and how much of an impact its contents can have on the environment, even throwing away paper becomes a choice you think about.”

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