It was difficult to imagine 5 months ago – when Kicillof announced the unfolding of the provincial election – that he was going to get so complicated to this instance. It comes badly in the political front -the votes in Congress and the audios of Spagnuolo, among many other things -in the economic front -turbulence and distrust are higher -and in the front of public opinion -the wear and tear is evident, as we comment in this column last week. For all that, today Sunday, September 7, it will also be complicated in the Electoral Front.
Winning or losing a choice is a circumstance in political life. The point is why it flows into a defeat. The three factors indicated in the first paragraph are all of libertarian harvest. Therefore, he is increasingly costing the government to blame Kirchnerism and that has a positive impact, at least, on his own audience. The “Kuka Risk” no longer turns on as an argument or among those who will vote today. Nor did they buy “the international conspiracy” related to the “coimagate” (the minister must have seen the famous American comedy of 1966, “that the Russians come”).
They attract two characteristics. One is the unease that has been installed in its own public, particularly the segment that voted together for the change in the first round of 2023, as we have been pointing out in this space of analysis. The second is the speed of deterioration. Contemporary policy has an exponential dynamic: nothing is moderate, slow, gradual, but everything goes up or down from one moment to another, for the positive and negative. This concept derives from the dynamics of so -called exponential technologies, such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of things or blockchain.
The Government imagined that it was going to be able to disarm the maneuver of Kicillof nationalizing this provincial election, and reissued its Hit “Libertad Vs. Kirchnerism.” Well, he could not do it because they added clouds that ended in a storm. The administration of Milei is on the defensive 3 weeks ago, and its defense mechanisms have been very weak. Why did a ruling party who was razing, full of vitality in his first year of mandate, disruptive, became a slow management, lack of reflexes, that the only thing that Atina is to play the back cover, as the Javo did in his discourse of closing campaign in Moreno? He lost epic, he cannot set an enthusiastic horizon, and on top of that he has to give explanations for the worst reasons (less bad that he avoided sticking a raje to Las Vegas to see Fatima).
Now it is up to the fear of Kirchnerism helps him and that motivates to vote. For doubts, on Wednesday he requested it 7 times, a biblical number (Kabalá or chance?). His own audience shares the same criticisms that unofficialists do: that the economy is hard, that confrontation does not help, that it lacks sensitivity. Almost unanimous advice: that lowers three changes. That is, the fear of the return of the past is a stronger engine than libertarian faith.
It runs out of conceptual support. It has long repudiated the “Best Minister of Economy in History” -Cavallo- and now the mentor of the nominal anchor -Ricardo Arriazu- says
that we were better with the crawling PEG than with the band system. Banks are burn. The industry counts the cents. The street does not see it. Is that why intense contacts between the most raised of Argentine economic power and dialoguistic governors are taking place? Are you worried about the post choice? What political scenario are imagining? Will Milei want the government, francs to power, a change in driving? What moment friends!
Although the last Correntina election does not represent any national indicator, not even provincial for October, brings three issues. The first is that, in a district where public employment is central in the local economy, which the chainsaw generated huge fears was applied: national management has been much more disapproved than approved for several months. The second issue has to do with the territorial insertion strategy. The libertarian candidate Almirón did not get a good result, but now there is a troop in the field identified with the cause to fight in October. No strategy is perfect, they all have some cost. Well, can it be a national project depending on a foreign army? Machiavelli would not have advised. The third is that the brand is not enough for itself, if it is not Milei traction. It was the first election of governor of this era and it is clear that there is not a milesty wave. Different was the ´91 during the menemism that enthroned Reutemann, Palito or Escobar.
While economists continue to review their GDP growth projections, placing them closer to 4 %, and the August built index under almost 9 % compared to Julio, the libertarian crañoteca was decided by an Argentine classic: intervene in the change market so that there is no inflationary impact. Like Macri, like Axel, as Massa, as … we already know. Exactly 25 years ago, the vertex of the local establishment died the convertibility more than a year before it occurred on December 19 and 20, 2021, after having usufructed it for 9 years. The famous “armor” did not take effect. Of course, it was not a time of social networks. Today everything goes at another speed, in an demonized world.
The Milei are not the Kennedy. The Americans came from an elite family and 100 % linked to power by the father of the boys. Let’s say they were the caste. The local brothers come from a middle class family and came to boast of not being part of the pre -existing status quo. When the argumentative imagination is extreme, it becomes laughible and credibility is lost. Recovering it then is one of the most complicated things in politics.
* Carlos Fara is a political consultant, director of Carlos Fara and Associates
By Carlos Fara *
