The question arises: what is the Iranian regime still?

The Iranian leaders threatened with tough reprisals when the United States still joined the Israeli attacks on Iran. Supreme leader Ali Khamenei warned in one Pre -recorded speech Thursday for ‘irreparable damage’ and stated that Iran will ‘never surrender’. The morning after those American attacks indeed took place, the Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi wrote on X that will have those ‘perpetual consequences’. Tough language, but more and more the question arises as to what the Iranians can actually put back now that the Americans are also bombarding the heavily excited country with their superior armament.

Not very much probably, apart from the shooting of their remaining rockets on American bases. As a gesture, they can block the street of Hormoez, along which a third part of the world transported by sea goes. Or they could attack the oil installations of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. It would increase oil prices and cause discomfort in the world, but with that the Iranians would also put the recovered relationships with Saudi Arabia under heavy pressure, and their relations with other Arab states.

‘Huge weakening’

It is hard to say how the khamenei more than a week after the start of the devastating Israeli attacks is really too good. He too will realize that the Islamic regime has never looked as vulnerable in the 46 years of its existence as it is now. Ali Fathollah-Nejad, an Iran expert in Berlin, spoke last week Opposite the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung From a “enormous weakening” of the regime, which makes its survival uncertain.

It is uncertain to what extent the old power structures in Iran are still intact. The 86-year-old Khamenei himself is assumed to be assumed in an underground bunker and the question is how much grasp he still has on policy and whether he can communicate with employees, now that several of his most important military and political advisers have been killed or seriously injured. It took Israel less than a week to also kill his successor after the highest Iranian soldier.

The stunning extent to which Israel seems to be aware of the places of residence of many Iranian political and military leaders clearly worried Iranian leaders. According to The New York Times Khamenei also no longer uses electronic means of communication. He only passes his instructions through personal contact with confidants. To be sure, the authorities also laid internet traffic in Iran on Wednesday evening Largely quiet. That happened to them because Israel would use this. There is also a search everywhere for Israeli spies. In this context there have been in recent days Dozens of people arrested.

If Khamenei is killed – and President Trump has already opened openly – then the spider would be beaten from the Iranian web. After all, Khamenei remains, at least on paper, the man who turns everything. The system that introduces his predecessor, Ayatollah Khomeiny, gives the supreme leader the last word about all the important decisions and appointments. Also in the army and in the revolutionary guard, an elite unit that falls directly under the leader. There are also a president, ministers and a parliament, but their voice always weighs less heavy than that of Khamenei.

As a precaution, Khamenei has now named a number of ‘reserves’ for high posts, if people were allowed to disappear, reports The New York Times. He would also have nominated three clergymen for his own position. However, Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, who was seen by some as a potential successor, should not belong to that three.

Son of the driven Shah

The uncertainty among the leaders does not mean that a popular uprising will now immediately break out, such as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and also Reza Pahlavi, the son of the driven Shah of Iran, hope. Both speculate on the unpopularity of the regime at the majority of the population. The fact is that an Iran specialist such as Karim Sadjadpour, who works for the American Carnegie think tank, estimates that at most 15 to 20 percent of the Iranians is still behind the reign. The vast majority has little to nothing with the Islamic ideology of the elderly leaders and certainly young Iranians yearn for closer ties with the West.

But as far as they have not fled the capital Tehran and other cities, the Iranians are currently not worried about the street for protest demonstrations. They have other worries on their heads, in the first place their safety. For many, anger also dominates the brutal Israeli attacks and emerging patriotic feelings. “I am not a fan of the Islamic Republic,” a resident expressed this to the correspondent from the Financial Times In Tehran, “But now is the time to show solidarity with Iran.”

There was not much organized resistance within Iran, partly as a result of the hard repression by the regime. Whoever even looks a bit like a leader of any resistance, usually ends up in prison quickly. This circumstance also played the last major protest movement in 2022, when people merged the street en masse to demand more freedom and women’s rights among the slogan ‘wife, life, freedom’. Partly due to a lack of leaders, that movement eventually dropped. Abroad, there are many outspoken opponents of the regime, but most of them enjoy little support in Iran itself. This also applies to Pahlavi.

Strong factor

There are also no signs yet that the Safety Apparatus has lost control of the population. Especially the powerful and tightly organized Revolutionary Guard From almost two hundred thousand men, on which Ayatollah Khamei leans more and more over the years for the enforcement of his authority, a formidable factor remains.

The guard, which is separate from the regular army, not only plays a crucial role in foreign and domestic safety. Over the years, the organization has also received more and more hold on the Iranian economy. This applies to the oil sector, construction of infrastructure, transport and also the financial sector. As a result, some guard-officers have grown into wealthy oligarchs.

Many ex-gardists themselves also end up in Iranian politics. In the current Iranian parliament, more than a quarter of the members have a background in the revolutionary guard. They are usually supporters of the hard line.

Some analysts also assume that leading figures from the guard will take over the reign, should Khamenei disappear from the scene. The leading role of the clergy of the past decades would probably be considerably reduced in that case. The new rulers would probably no longer bother the Iranians with anachronistic rules on compulsory headscarves for women – an obsession of Khamenei – but whether they would give the Iranians much more freedom is doubtful. A military dictatorship is then more likely.

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