The Swiss economy has put a brilliant start into 2025, but it should hardly be able to keep this high pace during the course of the year. US President Donald Trump is responsible for both.
The start was a little better than initially thought. The real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.8 percent in a adjusted basis from January to March 2025 compared to the previous quarter, as the State Secretariat for Economy (Seco) announced on Monday. The seco had measured 0.7 percent in an initial quick estimate two weeks ago.
Either way: these are significantly above average values. “The Swiss economy has grown dynamically,” says Felicitas Kemeny, economic manager at Seco, at the request of the Swiss financial news agency AWP.
Trump advanced effects
A driver of the boom was export preliminary drawing effects. According to the economist, there may have been those because of the customs threats by US President Donald Trump. Companies could have used the even deeper customs environment in the starting quarter. The “Liberation Day” then took place at the beginning of the second quarter.
The Seco also writes of “possible advanced effects in connection with US trade policy”. The export-oriented chemical-pharmaceutical industry in particular has grown. In fact, pharmaceutical exports in March to the previous month by a good third skyrocketed and then broke up by almost a quarter again in April.
The SECO also emphasizes that the service sector has also grown broadly in the starting quarter. And internal demand has also developed positively. However, the added value in the hospitality was declining – but this was after a strong previous quarter.
Counter movement in foreign trade
Despite the brilliant start, the Seco does not want to boost into the 2025 economic turnaround. “The development should not continue in the same style,” said Kemeny.
“We see a clear countermovement in foreign trade,” said the Seco expert. And also with the index of weekly economic activity, a weakening can be seen after the good start of the year. So far, however, there has been no actual slump in the economy in the second quarter, it states.
Most economists: Inside, expect the customs threats and the actually imposed tariffs of US President Trump to have a negative impact on growth in the course of the year – globally and in Switzerland. Because many companies are therefore putting investments on the long bank.
Early indicator continues
And this feels the Swiss machine, electrical and metal industry. The Seco writes that of a further declining added value in “typically more export -oriented industrial sectors” in the first quarter.
And the prospects have now deteriorated again. For example, the shopping manager index (PMI), which is considered an important early indicator, has fallen to the bottom of May since December 2023.
Specifically, the value for industry fell to 42.1 points. With values under 50 points, the companies surveyed assume a shrinking economic activity as a whole.
“The strong GDP increase in the starting quarter should not be understood as a prelude to a significant economic revival,” summarizes VP Bank economy Thomas Gitzel. Like many representatives of his guild, he continues to consider GDP growth of around 1 percent in the year as realistic.
So growth would be within the framework of the previous year. Because, according to the latest SECO numbers, this was adjusted at 1.0 percent instead of 0.9 percent, according to the latest SECO. But that is still a significantly below average value. On the long -term average, growth is around 1.7 percent.