Humanity has already crossed seven of Earth’s eight safe and just boundaries. That is what the Earth Commission, an international team of more than forty scientists, says in a study published Wednesday in the journal ‘Nature’. Not only global warming threatens life on our planet, but also other human-influenced developments such as dwindling fresh water supplies, environmental pollution and declining biodiversity.
“We are in the Anthropocene (part of the Holocene, the youngest geological epoch in which humans have an influence on the climate and the Earth system, ed.) and are endangering the stability and resilience of the entire planet,” says Professor Johan Rockström, co-chair of the Earth Commission, lead author of the study and director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The research should provide “quantifiable figures and a solid scientific basis for the first time” to “assess the state of our planetary health, not only in terms of stability and resilience of the Earth system, but also in terms of human well-being and justice/justice.” ”, it sounds.
Injustice
After all, when tackling climate change, the idea of fairness and justice is crucial, the scientists believe. While a warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era is considered safe, they consider a warming of no more than 1 degree Celsius fair. After all, tens of millions of people are already affected by the effects of global warming, and that number will only increase with every tenth of a degree warming, the scientists say.
Unless a timely turnaround occurs, it is very likely that irreversible tipping points and widespread impacts on human well-being will be inevitable
The commission quantified eight safe and fair boundaries clustered in the five domains of climate, biosphere (the part of the earth inhabited by living organisms), water, nutrient cycles and air pollution. Seven of those eight limits have already been crossed, the study shows. For example, not even half of the land surface is in its natural state or is sustainably managed to maintain the natural services of the ecosystems, such as pollination, fresh water and fresh air, the scientists note. They set the safe and fair limit at 50 to 60 percent.
“Very worrying”
“Our results are very worrying. Within the five domains analysed, several boundaries, on a global and local scale, have already been crossed. This means that, unless a timely turnaround takes place, it is very likely that irreversible tipping points and widespread consequences for human well-being will be inevitable. Avoiding that scenario is crucial if we want to ensure a safe and just future for current and future generations,” said Professor Rockström.
The human-made aerosols (the solid and liquid particles suspended in the atmosphere) are the only safe and just limit of the Earth system that scientists have not yet crossed. Locally, the fair value has already been exceeded, but due to a lack of data, scientists have no insight into the global aerosols.
Stored heat in the planet’s landmass is 20 times higher today than it was in 1960
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