You can also get promoted from the 2nd Bundesliga with 57 points, ask 1. FC Union Berlin. But that’s not likely. So how many points are needed? A calculation game.
This is a text also about statistics, and it starts with one that fans of SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV will surely like. Since the introduction of the 3-point rule before the 1995/96 season, only eleven clubs have had 48 or more points after 23 matchdays – and they always ended up being promoted.
This is of course good news for Darmstadt and HSV. They should also be happy to look at the current table of the 2nd Bundesliga, although Heidenheim has not only been a serious competitor since the victory against Darmstadt.
And so there is much to suggest that Darmstadt, HSV and Heidenheim make up the direct promotion places and the relegation rank three among themselves. The gap to places four, five and six is reasonably comfortable.
| Place | club | pt. |
|---|---|---|
1 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 49 |
2 | Hamburger SV | 48 |
3 | 1 FC Heidenheim | 46 |
4 | SC Paderborn | 39 |
5 | Fortuna Dusseldorf | 38 |
6 | 1 FC Kaiserslautern | 38 |
Only the third in the table has to go into relegation against the table 16. the Bundesliga and doesn’t even have that good of a chance, at least that’s what the statistics say. Since the introduction of relegation for the 2008/09 season, the second division team has only won three times. And second place is not first place either, after all it’s still about a lot of money, keyword TV money.
Only two points between first and fifth place – memories of 2011/12
Anyone who speaks of unprecedented tension when looking at the three points separating Darmstadt and Heidenheim should take a look at the table for the 2011/12 season before the 24th matchday. The later climbers are marked in color here.
| Place | club | Points |
|---|---|---|
1 | SpVgg Greuther Furth | 47 |
2 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 46 |
3 | FC St Pauli | 46 |
4 | SC Paderborn | 46 |
5 | Fortuna Dusseldorf | 45 |
You can also move up with 57 points
The question that remains is how many points the clubs need for promotion to the Bundesliga. Of course, there can be no rule here, the number of points fluctuates, as does the balance in the league.
But one thing is certain: if a club has scored an average of two points per game over 34 match days since the introduction of relegation, it has always been able to celebrate promotion. And once, an average of 1.67 points was enough for promotion. That was in 2018/19, when 1. FC Union Berlin got 57 points, finished third and then won the relegation against VfB Stuttgart.
| season | Third place points | Points second place |
|---|---|---|
2008/09 | 60 | 63 |
2009/10 | 62 | 64 |
2010/11 | 65 | 65 |
2011/12 | 62 | 68 |
2012/13 | 58 | 67 |
2013/14 | 60 | 62 |
2014/15 | 58 | 59 |
2015/16 | 65 | 67 |
2016/17 | 66 | 67 |
2017/18 | 56 | 60 |
2018/19 | 57 | 57 |
2019/20 | 55 | 58 |
2020/21 | 62 | 64 |
2021/22 | 60 | 63 |
| Average | 60.4 | 63.1 |
An average of 63.1 points over the past 14 seasons was enough for second place and direct promotion. Darmstadt would have to score more than 14 points in the remaining eleven games to surpass this mark. Makes a required point average of 1.27, which should be manageable.
15 points would be necessary for HSV and an average of 1.36 per game, for Heidenheim 18 points (1.64 per game).
So far, Heidenheim has averaged exactly two points per game, Darmstadt (2.13) and HSV (2.08) are even better. So it is not at all improbable that the average of 63.1 points this year will not be enough for a direct promotion place.