With three wins from four games, Hansa Rostock got off to a surprisingly good start in the second division season. But what followed was three defeats and a slide in the table. Now the question arises as to the true performance of the Mecklenburgers. Data analysis provides answers.
After the recent 1:3 defeat at the Betzenberg in Kaiserslautern, the Rostockers were really frustrated. His team “completely overslept” for 25 minutes, complained coach Alois Schwartz. He criticized the defense, which “was partly naive” and “didn’t act cleverly”. And he criticized the attack, namely Juan José Perea, who “should have put the ball in the goal” when he had his chances.
The initial momentum is gone, and Hansa keeper Markus Kolke stated: “Three defeats in a row is a word. There is clearly a bit of pressure on the kettle.”
The North Germans are still doing quite well in eleventh place in the table – thanks to their good start. With only two points ahead of the relegation zone, the alarm bells are already ringing. Those in charge, players and fans alike should be concerned with the question: How good is this team really – like in the furious start to the season or rather like in the games after?
“Three defeats in a row is already a word. There is clearly a bit of pressure on the kettle.”
— Hansa goalkeeper Markus Kolke
The focus is also on coach Schwartz, who saved the club from relegation as a firefighter in the spring, but acted extremely defensively. But the 56-year-old has already shown in his career (including leading Karlsruhe to promotion to the second division) that he can do things differently. Will he find the right path with and for Hansa in the long term?
Hansa has the worst squad in the league
A look at the data from GSN initially shows something astonishing: According to Expected Points, the Rostock team should actually be in last (!) place in the table. The real nine points are compared to 5.40 in the calculation. However, a significantly worse performance would not even be surprising. Because with an average GSN index of players of 55.01, Hansa also has the worst squad in the league.
What is the “Expected points” model?
The expected points determine the number of points that a team “should” have gotten from a game based on the scoring chances, i.e. the “expected goals,” that they generated or should have gotten in that game. Each team gets between 0.1 and 2.7 expected points, depending on how one-sided the game was from the perspective of expected goals.
When looking at the individual games, according to expected goals and points, only the win against newly promoted Osnabrück (2:1) was really deserved. On the other hand, only the defeat against leaders Düsseldorf (1:3) was undeserved. The other two victories fall into the lucky category, and according to the data, no one can complain about the three other defeats (Hannover, HSV and Kaiserslautern).
Same place and same points as with Härtel
Short side note: Last season, the Hanseatic League – under Schwartz’s predecessor Jens Härtel – also got nine points after seven match days and were in eleventh place as they are now. The only difference was the goals scored and conceded: while the goal difference was 5:9 at this point in 2022, it is now 9:12.
These numbers alone show the current problem: Hansa has recently lost defensive stability. And the offense is still not good enough to regularly compensate for poor defensive performances.
More offensive game – Schwartz ventures out of cover
On the way to staying in the league, Schwartz relied on an extremely defensive approach last season. On average, his defensive line was 5.5 meters closer to his own goal than under Härtel, who himself is not known for hurray football. But: Schwartz has, in the truest sense of the word, ventured out of the cover a little since the start of the season. The last chain has now moved forward 4.21 meters (i.e. 36.07 meters).
What is the “Performance Score”?
- Goals, passes, fouls, shots or even offside positions: the basic game data and further analyzes such as “expected goals” or “action scores” are placed in a higher-level context by an algorithm in the “performance score” – for example, position-related.
- With the “Performance Score” all players are initially set to 0 and are evaluated based on pure performance data combined with data models.
- This value therefore provides an assessment of how well or poorly a player is currently playing.
- The “performance score” is a component of the GSN index, which in turn is a general, long-term assessment of all of a player’s skills, potential and qualities.
This is also due to a (partial) system change. The 3-4-3, which usually featured a five-man chain at the back against the ball, is increasingly becoming a 3-4-1-2. Which in turn has to do with the new additions: The strikers Juan-José Perea (56.00) and Júnior Bramado (57.90) have already shown their class. The performance score of Perea (56.00/tenth best striker in the league) and Bramado (57.90/6th) shows them as clear reinforcements.
The new playmaker, Sebastian Vasiliadis (54.70), who has Bundesliga experience, has so far not been a factor like all the other newcomers.
Guaranteed success Pröger has lost a lot of money
Kai Pröger has also appeared too rarely. The guarantee of staying in the league last season – he was involved in almost 47 percent of all goals with ten goals and six assists – has only scored once since the start of the season and has not directly prepared a goal.
Statistically, his values in the previous season were noticeably better than would have been expected based on his performance (overperformance). Now the 31-year-old remains well below his potential: his performance score has fallen from 55.61 to 53.50.
Schwartz: “We need perseverance”
Schwartz has just prepared the club and its supporters for a tough season in the “Ostsee-Zeitung”: “We need staying power, we will have dry spells. I hope that they won’t last too long.” The veteran coach, who has now been in the business for over 20 years, was at the same time calm about the three defeats and explained that he was “not worried that we were top of the table after two match days”.
Goalkeeper Kolke emphasized in the Sportschau interview that he hoped that the Hansa-Kogge would soon “move back into calmer waters”.
Season simulation: Hansa has to go into relegation
Nevertheless, a win against Eintracht Braunschweig on Saturday (1 p.m., in the NDR Livecenter) is of course the declared goal. This leads to a reunion with ex-coach Härtel, for whom things are going much worse with the “Lions” as they are second to last in the table.
Schwartz didn’t want to hear anything about a “compulsory win”: “The media always throws it out there. We know who we are and where we come from. Now we hope that we shake ourselves well so that everything is out of the way again and start again against Braunschweig .”
In the end, every single point will probably be important for Hansa. The GSN simulation of the season proves the coach right when it comes to the necessary staying power – more than he would have liked: According to this, Hansa is only ranked 16th in the final table and would therefore have to sit in relegation.
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North Magazine | Sep 29, 2023 | 19:30 o’clock
