The socialist candidate has made a total of four visits to Andalusia since the pre-campaign, none in the 23J campaign, while Feijóo accumulates 16 and plans to close in Malaga to make it clear that the Andalusian barn will be key on his way to Moncloa
Minimum effort, maximum benefit. The socialists have planned on this precept his election campaign. Without time, after the unexpected advance of 23J, and in the middle of summer, the PSOE wants its messages to reach a potential audience of 20 million of people. That is why he has bet everything on the president giving interviews and going to new formats (podcast) with a huge audience. In addition, the bulk of funding is being spent on social media. All at the cost of hardly holding rallies.
Pedro Sánchez will only go to the essential provinces, those where there are dancing seats and can be assured with their presence. This has always been the ABC’s of the campaigns but now with much more sense because there are very few events planned. Sources from Ferraz confirm that they do not work with a closed agenda and that “in 48 hours” they could organize a rally, if the strategy advises it. In this design, despite its political and territorial importance, for now, there is nothing fixed in Andalusia. Just the opposite of what Alberto Núñez Feijóo is doing, Yolanda Diaz and Santiago Abascal, with several visits behind him.
Andalusia: 4 Sánchez-16 Feijóo
In Andalusia, the difference with the PP is resounding. The community that contributes the most seats to the Congress of Deputies (61) is a key scenario in any electoral battle, but the numbers speak for themselves. Feijóo accumulates in his agenda, from the pre-campaign of the municipal ones to date, a total of eleven visits which add up 16 public acts in various formats and in all Andalusian provinces except Jaén and Almería. In the campaign he has come twice and in the last week he is expected to return “once or twice”. He will close the campaign in Malaga, which reveals that the community is his main granary. Here the PP aspires to double seats and shorten the distance that the PSOE gains in Catalonia or the Basque Country. Quadruples the agenda of his socialist rival.
Pedro Sánchez in that same interval of time has held four events, three in the municipal ones (Seville, Jaén and Jerez) and one in the pre-campaign of the general ones, which started in Dos Hermanas, his talisman city. From the PSOE-A campaign committee they assure that no more campaign visits are planned. In Ferraz they explain that it will be decided at the last minute, in an improvised campaign according to the polls and the arithmetic of the ball of seats. “We are not going to reveal the strategy,” they settle. The heads of the list in the Andalusian provinces, Maria Jesus Montero (Seville), Fernando Grande-Marlaska (Cadiz), carmen bald (Grenada) or Anthony Hernando (Almería), they are participating in informative breakfasts in their provinces, in contacts with the media and in events with small forums, no big rallies. In provinces like Jaén, where the socialist machinery is more well-oiled, assemblies and meetings are being held in towns and medium-sized cities. It is an exception in Andalusia.
In the Andalusian case, Sumar’s candidate, Yolanda Diaz He has visited Seville and Cádiz in the campaign. In municipal she went to Seville, Malaga and Huelva, on a visit to Doñana. His agenda does not provide for more events. The Vox Leader Santiago Abascal He decided to open in El Ejido (Almería) and has also held meetings in Malaga and Jaén. It is true that the heat, with two chained waves that have left impossible temperatures, is marking all formats but the agendas leave little doubt about the electoral stakes of each party. From Ferraz they warn that Andalusia is not an exception, Sánchez’s agenda is also little or none in Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha and Castilla y León.
Seek profitability
The Socialists maintain that “it is not necessary to hold rallies” because what interests them is that his speech, currently focused on “polarization”, arrives, in which the Spanish assume that the alternative to Sánchez is a government of PP and Vox. And to achieve this, they estimate that the media tour of the president is more profitable. This thesis is not shared by everyone in the party. Territorial leaders defend that “they are useful for something, they create opinion, they show strength, they put the infantry like planes“.
But the decision has been made and despite the face-to-face stumbling block with Feijóo, nothing has changed. Sánchez will continue along this same lane. This Thursday travel to Santanderon Friday it is possible that there will be an act in Lugo (Ferraz has not yet confirmed it) and the weekend will be first in Valencia and then in Barcelona.
Its presence in all these constituencies has a purely electoral reason. In the Cantabrian capital it has come to fruition because since the PRC, Miguel Ángel Revilla’s party, does not run for general elections, they believe they can get the second seat.
In Lugo, where four deputies are at stake, traditionally there have been two for the PP and two for the PSOE. But, PSdG sources explain, that “the first surveys gave three to the PP and one to us.” “Now it seems that we are two to two,” they point out. That is why the possibility of Sánchez traveling there is open, to consolidate this distribution. Feijóo is also focused on Galicia, consolidating the Galician-Andalusian axis that led him to the presidency of the PP.
stir up the electorate
In addition, the Socialists, although they have abandoned the call for a useful vote around their initials that they launched in the days prior to 28M, consider that in small provinces, with less than seven parliamentarians, the vote will naturally concentrate on the PSOE because Sumar does not have options to obtain a seat.
In Valencia, on the other hand, the push of the PP and its arrival at the Generalitat, after the pact with Vox, could help to get the fifth deputy (in 2019 they had four) because 16 seats are now decided in this constituency instead of 15.
The far-right’s access to institutions is having a lot of impact. The vice presidency of the Council for the former bullfighter Vicente Barreda, the withdrawal of the LGTBI flags and the prohibition of demonstrations on gender violence in the Náquera City Council or the refusal of the new president of the Valencian Parliament, of Vox, to participate in the institutional concentration after the last sexist murder sting the progressive voter. In the Valencian Community and throughout Spain. Ferraz has prepared an act with women this Saturday to “denounce what the pacts between PP and Vox are representing.”
Catalonia through Andalusia
The next destination will be Barcelona. In the absence of what happens in Andalusia, the PSOE has high hopes for a good result in Catalonia. There, according to the latest survey of the Catalan CIS, they could achieve between 16 and 18 parliamentarians. Now they have 12. In Lleida they would retain the deputy; in Girona the forecast is that they can escalate to two, although in the PSC they recognize that it is “difficult”; in Tarragona go from two to three and in Barcelona, from eight to 12 or 13. The Catalan capital, which has become almost the spiritual reserve of socialism, its greatest jewel, since Jaime Collboni became Mayor, is therefore a target priority.
However, already in January, months ago, from Ferraz they admitted that the alarms were on in Andalusia and that the diagnosis was clear. Sanchez assumed that If he did not stop the Andalusian debacle, he would be evicted from Moncloa. The expected growth in Catalonia, the other community that contributes the most seats to Congress (48), is unlikely to sustain the PSOE in the face of an Andalusian debacle. What is striking is that the diagnosis was clear and the strategy to stop the wear and tear, with a greater presence of ministers and a more intense planned agenda for Sánchez, has not been carried out. Since September Until February, five visits from the socialist leader were added, but the rhythm was interrupted. Meanwhile, the PP has continued to consolidate and water the main barn of votes, which before was a socialist stronghold and now it seems that it is going to be key for the PP.