The triumph of the Islamophobe and euroskeptic Geert Wilders in the dutch november elections, who with his aggressive anti-immigration and anti-Islam rhetoric has managed to channel social discontent in his country, is the latest example that the political winds in Europe have shifted to the right. A turn that has occurred previously in Italygoverned for a year by Giorgia Meloni (Brothers of Italy), in Sweden or Finland -both with far-right parties supporting the government coalition- and which is palpable in more and more countries in the European Union. It is the case of Greece, Austria, Germany, Belgium and also of Francewhere polls show a strong rise in the next European elections, which will take place between June 6 and 9, 2024, to the National Regrouping (RN) of Marine Le Pen. Six months after these elections, does this mean that the far right can become key piece of the new European gear?
“It is very difficult to predict (the result of) the European elections so far in advance. They are not governed at all by the same criteria as national elections. In many Member States these are punitive elections. And to see who is going to be punished, when and how you have to be closer,” explains the director of the Brussels office of the Center for European Reform (ECR), Mortera Roadabout an electoral event that will kick off the distribution of the ‘top jobs’the senior positions of the future European leadership, including the presidency of the European Commission currently held by the German Ursula von der Leyen.
A late December screening by Europe Elects places the group Identity and Democracy -that brings together Eurosceptics, populists and anti-immigration parties such as the Lega of Italy, the French RN, the German AfD or the Belgian Vlaams Belang among others – competing with the liberals of Renew Europe for the third or fourth place of the chamber (currently sixth), behind ECR, Greens, Liberals, Social Democrats and the European People’s Party. A boom that experts attribute to a cocktail of factorsfrom the risk of terrorist threat and insecurity until the increase in immigration or the discontent of thousands of Europeans with their governments for excessive use of their prerogatives to approve unpopular laws since the covid19 pandemic.
“We have seen the results in Holland and the polls in France are terrible. “Pro-European parties have to think very carefully about how to focus this campaign so that the framework is not established by extremes,” acknowledges the Spanish socialist MEP. Domènec Ruiz Devesa. “There remains a social anxiety and uncertainty about the future that extremes are very adept at exploiting. We have a good base but it must be explained,” he insists on the need to contrast the discourse of the extreme right with the achievements of the last five years, in which Europe has jumped from crisis to crisis, but a five-year period in which it has articulated responses in economic matters with the recovery plan, energy with the reform of the electricity market to contain price volatility or immigration with asylum reform. “It would be against nature for what happened in May in Spain to happen in June (in the municipal elections). That is, those who do not have a background or a program for the future win by exploiting people’s insecurity, uncertainty about the future, speaking ill of immigrants,” he adds.
Poverty, exclusion and health
According to the last European Parliament Eurobarometer, for 36% of those surveyed the main priority should be the fight against poverty and social exclusion and for 34% public health, well ahead of the 18% who point to immigration and asylum. The crisis in the main economies of the EU and the impact of high inflation, the response to climate change and the cost of the green agenda, the growing discontent in rural areas, as well as asylum and immigration policy will mark the European campaign , in addition to aid to Ukraine or the repercussions of the conflict between Israel and Palestine.
“There are many pockets of instability and polarization. Moderate European governments need an anchor. Trying to launch the idea that we have this under control so that citizens feel safe because they have had three years of absolute shocks and it is normal that in the end they look for simple solutions and quick consolations that usually come from the extremes,” says Camino Mortera. Surveys and analysts assume that the EPP will continue to be the hegemonic group but the important thing, beyond the rise of the extremes to which the polls point, will be the “balance of power.” between “pro-European progressives and stagnant regressives” whether they are eurosceptics or eurocritics. “The numbers are going to be complicated because I think there is going to be a decline of the socialists and the greens in many member states, which will leave a Parliament that is difficult to manage,” predicts this security and immigration expert.
Future coalition
Internal EPP sources agree with his diagnosis, suggesting that the new European Parliament will be more fragmented, which could lead to a new configuration of more transversal agreements and pacts. The dilemma that the popular party will have before them if they win will be:renew the grand coalition with social democrats and liberals (and greens), do they give the numbers? go towards specific agreements? EITHERbreak the current agreement and turn towards the extreme right and the ultra-conservatives embodied by the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), where Vox and Meloni’s Brothers of Italy sit?
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“In general, it seems unlikely, but in some aspects it could be possible,” the professors consider. Brunello Rosa and Benedict Poettering about an eventual center-right coalition. Mortera also sees a “marriage” as difficult. between the EPP and the ultra-conservatives because of the very different conception of Europe that each of them have. “Are we going to do a European enlargement? Through concentric circles? Is the Eurozone going to integrate more? Are we going to get more into debt together? There are fundamental issues on which the EPP and ECR do not agree at all – including the rule of law – so it seems difficult to me to see an alliance between them that is not a specific alliance,” he estimates on one of the big issues that will be on the table. Antonio Tajani, leader of Forza Italia, has also ruled it out.
What there is no doubt is that the European elections will be a new opportunity for reinforce the democratic dimension of the elections. A recent report from the European Parliament, signed by Devesa and his colleague the popular German Sven Simon and seconded by the plenary session in December, is committed to introducing new measures to increase participation rate and give greater visibility to Europe in national campaigns. They propose, for example, including the symbols of European political parties in advertising and on voting ballots and that the parties sign an agreement on the process of selecting the next president of the Commission – known as spitzenkandidaten– and prevent EU leaders from deciding behind closed doors, as happened in 2019.