Germany’s games against Italy in the quarter -finals of the Nations League have a technically deeper meaning – the winner may hope for a better starting point for the draw of the 2026 World Cup.
The most important thing shortly:
- The game between Germany and Italy could be crucial for who is in the top 9 of the world rankings and thus ends up in Lost pot 1 in the group draw of the 2026 World Cup.
- That is why this is important: if you are in Lost pot 1, you can hope for lighter opponents from pots 2, 3 and 4.
- But a success against Italy would also have a catch: then severe point losses in the final tournament of the Nations League are possible.
The 2026 World Cup in the USA, Mexico and Canada will be the first with 48 teams. National coach Julian Nagelsmann declared nothing less than the title as a goal – the first step after qualification would be to survive the group phase.
According to the current plans, there will be twelve groups with four teams each with the 2026 World Cup. The procedure has not yet been confirmed by FIFA, but was always the same at the past tournaments: the hosts and the best teams in the world rankings end up in Lost pot 1. With twelve groups, that would be the USA, Mexico, Canada and the best nine teams in the world rankings.
And that makes the quarter -finals of the Nations League interesting: Italy is currently in ninth place in the world rankings, Germany in tenth place.
Germany could pass by – but needs two victories
Germany is 1,703.79 points behind Italy, which has 1,731.51 points. If you get how many points after a game, you will be calculated with a formula. This takes into account the starting points of both teams, the importance of the game (e.g. WM, EM, Nations League, qualification or friendly), the “expected outcome” of the game and of course the result.
The result: In a victory, Germany would have 13.16 points, Italy would lose the same number of points. Then it would be in the world rankings 1,718.35 to 1,716.95 for Italy, another victory in the second leg would be necessary for the German team to pass by. In the world rankings, the scores of the teams play an important role before a game.
If Italy would win, the team would only get 11.84 points, while Germany lost the same number of points.
Hook: In the final tournament of the Nations League
If Germany passed Italy with two wins, the space among the best nine teams would not yet be secured. The big catch: While Germany could meet in the semi-finals in the semi-finals in Portugal or Denmark and later in the final or in the game for 3rd place in Spain, Netherlands, France or Croatia, Italy would already start the World Cup qualification.
Italy’s opponent in June would be Norway and the Republic of Moldova. Italy would then have the supposedly lighter opponents to collect points. For Germany, in the Nations League final tournament, defeats against Denmark and Croatia are particularly expensive – because these two teams are in the DFB selection.
Two possible groups in the World Cup qualification
The World Cup qualification also also deals with points in the world rankings. Because the winners of the quarterfinal games for schedule have to play in one of the four-groups of the World Cup qualification, the clearance was raffled off at the draw. There are two possible groups for Germany, depending on the outcome of the quarter -final games:
- Group A: winner Germany/ItalySlovakia, Northern Ireland, Luxembourg
- Group I: Loser Germany/ItalyNorway, Israel, Estonia, Republic of Moldova
The result is that the compilation of the groups will not be completely clear at the end of March even on the first matchday of the qualification.