analysis
The World Cup has been expanded to 48 teams – and yet the top teams stumble against the supposedly smallest ones. An analysis.
Rudi Völler was right after all when he pointed out to Waldemar Hartmann almost 23 years ago in his unforgettable wheat beer rage speech that there are no longer any little ones in football. And Gianni Infantino must also have rubbed his hands when Spain’s opening game against Cape Verde ended goalless and the biggest sensation of the 2026 World Cup so far was perfect.
In the run-up to the XXL World Cup, the FIFA boss repeatedly justified the expansion of the tournament to 48 teams by saying that he wanted to offer the smaller nations the largest possible stage in international football. These now include debutants in this tournament such as Curacao, Uzbekistan, Jordan and Cape Verde – but also many other teams that traveled to the USA, Mexico and Canada with the underdog stamp.
The World Cup has its first surprises
And in fact, the supposed outsiders proved to be a stumbling block for the top teams several times on the first day of the group game. Qatar made the start against Switzerland, Australia duped the highly rated Turks. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the DR Congo also managed a draw against the favored teams from Belgium, Uruguay and Portugal.
Of course, Cape Verde reached its climax with their sensational 0-0 draw against Spain. Only Germany – and that may have reassured one or two of the around 80 million self-proclaimed national coaches in this country – did not show any weakness against Curacao and celebrated a befitting start with a score of 7-1.
But what reasons are there for the success in the duel between small and large at this World Cup? Four observations from the first day of group play:
1. Carelessness and lack of ideas
Switzerland provided the lesson in a negative way: against Qatar, the “Confederates” seemed to have the game firmly under control – more ball possession, more shots on goal, more corners. But instead of going after it – there were plenty of chances to do so – Qatar took advantage of the lapse in concentration and carelessness of their opponents, who were already confident of victory, and scored the equalizer in stoppage time.
Spain also seemed to have felt confident in their individual and playing class in view of the task against Cape Verde. The favorite sank into endless ball relays. There was a lack of ideas and variability. Spain played too slowly and too statically. 943 ball possession phases and an xGoals value (expected goals based on chances) of 2.21 didn’t help.
The situation was similar in Portugal’s 1-1 draw against the DR Congo. The heavily favored Portuguese gained a lot of possession, but were unable to use it due to a lack of dynamism and creativity. Vitinha alone ended up with 130 ball contacts. His yield: zero shots on goal, zero assists. The DR Congo fought back with collective fighting strength; a set-piece goal was ultimately enough to equalize and win the point.
2. Tactical quality has increased
Football doesn’t always have to be pretty – the main thing is that it is successful. A compact defensive block and occasional offensive pinpricks are often enough. Australia did it 2-0 against Turkey. From the start, the “Socceroos” parked the bus in front of their own penalty area and coldly punished their opponents’ excess of chances in the crucial moments. What Spain can learn from: For Australia, 0.76 xGoals were enough for two goals.
But there is more to it than just luck; and it is also the result of the increased professionalism in global football. Video analysis and modern coaching methods are no longer the privilege of the big guys. Even small units prepare meticulously, study the opponent, then close the spaces during the game and strike on the counterattack. The trend is towards deep 4-4-2 or 5-4-1 formations with two compact, shifting chains that leave no space between the lines.
Joshua Kimmich also recently emphasized once again that the quality at the World Cup was very balanced despite the XXL field of participants. “The supposedly smaller nations are getting better and better in terms of tactics and football“, emphasized the captain of the DFB team. The 0-0 draw by the Spaniards against Cape Verde is proof that the larger nations have to bring everything to the pitch even against supposedly weak opponents. Against this background, the opening victory against Curacao was not a sure-fire success.
3. Brilliant achievements the goalkeeper
There is no World Cup fairytale without heroes – and these are often the goalkeepers. Three have been in particular focus so far: Australia’s Patrick Beach, Cape Verde’s Vozinha and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed Al-Owais.
Beach kept his box clean with 28 shots from Turkey. Vozinha became the match winner against Spain with seven saves, intercepted numerous corners and took time off the clock in crucial moments. Al-Owais even set a tournament record with eleven saves in the draw against Uruguay. Uruguay had 27 attempts on goal, only one was missed.
What was also remarkable was the aplomb with which the three keepers excelled in the face of their tasks. And this calm also rubs off on the people in front: the belief that even the umpteenth big chance will be prevented with the next flight can move mountains – or at least stop teams that are much better positioned individually, like Spain or Turkey.
4. The World Cup mode factor
In this World Cup with 48 teams and twelve groups of four, not only the first two in each group advance, but also the best eight third-placed teams. Even a single point can theoretically be enough for the knockout phase. For outsiders, this is a structural advantage. The pressure to take offensive risks against the favorites decreases significantly. Stand low, keep zero, wait for the point – and all without existential distress. This successful formula worked more than once.
At the same time, the new mode can also be used as an indication of the low-risk play of the top teams. The lack of consistency in front of the opponent’s goal has little impact on the table on the first matchday. The tournament is also still long, ideally the strength has to last until the final on July 19th. So there is still enough time to switch to full throttle mode. The fact that this isn’t always easy for the fans to bear is another matter.
What happens on the second one? Group game day?
Of course, the second match day could straighten things out again. Türkiye against Paraguay, Spain against Saudi Arabia, Belgium against Iran – the opportunity to make amends comes quickly for the big players. However, it is already apparent that the surprises at the start are not an outlier, but rather a structural feature of this World Cup.