The thermometer showed a warning again, and as usually the indicator that officiates of adjustment variable is the price of the dollar in its free versions (the Blue, the one counted with liquidation -cl- or the MEP). Splicing with the discussion about the eventual delay of the official exchange rate, the cluster of rumors about the small print of the imminent agreement with the International Monetary Fund to reprogram debt maturities and, Eventually, obtain “fresh” funds to “improve the heritage of the Central Bank”.
Green alert. However, the mini exchange run that reasons to the nominal exchange rate at its highest value in six months was not the only call for the negotiating timing of the economic team. Hysteria in the market did not come alone: as the Central Bank tried to tame the onslaught, each day ended with a fall in reservations (in addition to the US $ 310 million that on Saturday 15 had to face the treasure as debt payments) what ended in a drainage of more than US $ 750 million, Leaving gross reserves below US $ 27,350 million, the lowest level since last September.
Although the values stabilized from a more determined intervention in the central, a message on the expectations generated in the “market” was passed, so it would entail the aforementioned agreement that slowed down since this summer. The equation seemed simple: the observation of the technical staff of the international organism pointed to the successive exchange controls that take time to disarm. And the fear of the government, shared by some economists, although in a minority in front of the rest of his colleagues, is that a exchange leap through a unification and liberation of the stock would lead to an inflationary rebound. And with that, it is not played, because the variable par excellence on which the entire puzzle of economic policy is accommodated is precisely the consumer price index (IPC). All others are not indifferent, but the very attendable interpretation is embraced, which after five decades of inflationary disagreement, the price of the dollar, economic activity, real wages and poverty, among many others, end up being defined in the short or medium term for the dynamics of retail prices.
The last measurement of the CPI threw for last February an increase of 2.4%, much lower than that registered in the same month last year (+13.2%) but still keeps a very high year -on -year value: 67%, which, although it is already two annual figures and in March it would probably be below 55%, If the private projections that give this month a guide between 2.2% and 2.4% are confirmed. However, looking in detail, it can be seen that there is a notable gap between the price of goods ( +2.1% and that of services: +3.1%). That is, the “tradable” that by definition are the goods, already feel the rigor of the exchange anchor to which the services escape. But in February the increase in meat, which does not occur regularly, but has a weight of almost 10% in the construction of the basic basket. In this case, the food and drinks item rose 3.2%, only exceeded by housing services (+3.7%), influenced by adjustments in public rates that during this semester should already be regularized.
Choosing the exchange rate as an anchor is not capricious since in a country with a bimonary economy and with an active memory in the defense of income and heritage, devaluative expectations always weigh and affect the (low) demand for money and the (high) of currencies. By forcing disinflation, a virtuous circle in investment, consumption and tax revenues would be launched in order to sustain beyond the initial squeeze, the fiscal surplus, cornerstone of the entire medium -term economic program.
The indicators of the last quarter of the year seem to give the reason to the first part of this reasoning. The economist Fernando Marull He points out, especially, the great rebound of investment (+11% quarterly), especially supported by the large mobilization of resources to the Vaca Muerta complex (oil and gas) that seems to indicate a constant for the coming years. The private real salary also grew (the public was somewhat lagged and the informal, although it was recovered is far from the values prior to the inflationary coup of 2023-2024.
The unknown, in any case it is not whether the results are positive but if the process is sustainable or precise of an additional injection (funds) or any correction in economic policy. In both case, material fatigue is verified, once again, by the acute shortage of dollars that could not be maintained if devaluative expectations accentu Pesisifneen (as happened in 2002 and recently in Bolivia). As tagged Marina Dal Poggettoit is still a program “Cepo-Dependent”.
Looks. In this regard, the Deputy Minister of Economy José Luis DazaHe was strikingly sincere when he explained in Congress the reasons why Argentina needed to urgently sign an agreement with the IMF. “Little by little we have been disarming those potential sources of crisis, but we have a weakness that has forced us to have a exchange rate; a vulnerability that prevents us from taking economic measures that would allow us to grow faster,” he acknowledged. And proposed as an initial point to start solving it, solving the insolvency of the Central Bank, a hinge from which you can start thinking about a positive cycle.
Other economists see in these turbulence a natural response to uncertainty. For Sebastián Menescaldi, Associate Director of Eco Gothe transfer at prices of an eventual exchange jump due to the disappearance of the stocks will depend on the magnitude of this difference so, unlike what happened in December 2023, when it unleashed a wave of remarks contained, the situation is different and the exchange gap does not exceed 20%. “On the one hand there are much more aligned prices and, in addition, the government gained credibility in the market with everything they did. So, the prices forward perspective should be less. It is clear that all this is tied to politics ”, It emphasizes, of course, also believes that the political situation in the electoral year could faint the balances that can be achieved.
For its part, the UCEMA professor Federico Pablo Vacalebreremember that the market continues to see that the trend is to go to unification, but without twisting the general course of economic policy that seems to be perceived as firm. “First for the issue of fiscal discipline, which is something that is obviously unnegotiable that from the Executive I do not believe that that can be broken in any circumstance”points out. The other reference point is the objective of the agreement with the fund: a central bank essentially more robust. “You should seek to have a more reliable financial system and, eventually, that would lead to greater stability of the system and currency. Issues that all go in the same direction: lower inflation, have an independent and strong central bank and that at some point the mentioned exchange unification effectively arrives,” he adds.
A point that marks for a more optimistic path is the data of the February wholesale inflation: +1.6% with which it is already drilling the floor of the previous monthly. “I think it is the tendency in terms of inflation and also in terms of the reference rate in the market, on which today the mortgage loans and the financing of some sectors are ‘flying’ through the instrument of negotiable obligations.” Is all this a tremor before the start of a sensitive reactivation or will it be encapsulated in isolated zones and segments? An answer that will only give an economic policy when it stops covering urgencies and has a more extensive horizon.
