During this week that we finished we learned the CPI according to the national statistical calendar or as it is normally known monthly inflation. This month gave a general result of 7.8%, and as encouraging data, it can only be said that it is a breath of fresh air to the constant increases that the National Institute of Statistics and censuses had been registering since November 2022: with the record of 4.9 % never stopped growing, even reaching a very high inflation level of 8.4% in April.
What you have to understand is that the difference is always generated in the food and beverages category (because it represents 36% of the total index, since 2016), which as soon as April was almost 10%, in May it ended up being 5.8%, but not for reasons of compliance with the fair price agreement, despite imposing million-dollar fines on the large marketing surfaces (supermarket chains) and some producers who almost monopolized their production, but above all because prices did not continue to increase at the same rhythm that until last April as a consequence that the population is beginning to stop buying/consuming items related to their values.
As proof of this, we can see that the interannual growth of AFIP’s monthly collection is less than inflation in the same period for the 2nd consecutive month. It should be noted that the clothing and footwear item returned to levels close to 10% per month as in the moments prior to joining the FAIR PRICES program, which incorporated the limit of 3.8% monthly increase for those products not included in the program, this It is the only negative consequence of the increase in TC limits that we are going to talk about later, because they could not sell more products for their values
Despite all this, we are not yet in a period of economic recession, which according to some establish it with a minimum of 3 consecutive months of the previous situation and others, like the writer, maintain that in this part of the year between 4 and 6 consecutive months must be considered , supports this in that we find ourselves at a time when the joint ventures are closing and makes wages and therefore consumption grow shortly. Consumption is also stimulated through the management carried out by the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, that banks raise the limits of credit cards by 30% and even the increase in overdraft agreements of companies by 25% .
Only during the month of August can we say that the respite from the low inflation of the month of May can begin the downward trend, we say August because we are going to have those for June and July already established. If next August 15 (when the CPI for July is published) they continue to drop, we can talk about inflation starting with 6 -as the current Minister likes to say- it will be a sign that both production and customs will continue to working 24×7 (as up to now) and that some importers became aware that they must lower final prices by about 35% and that even so they continue to earn small fortunes to win by number of sales operations and not just price.
Since the REM is not credible because those who compose it have vested, political and economic interests, in providing a number greater than the real one, for which we can say that in 2020 they estimated annual inflation of 60%, being 36, in 2021 they estimated 75 and it was 55, in 2022 they said 120 and it was 95, now they say 150 and possibly the final data is similar to 2022.
We say political interests because they do not like a government of this style and we say economic because the larger the data they provide, the more their gain in UVA credits because 50% is the value of the REM and the rest is real inflation (CPI). This issue was not even remotely resolved because the commission’s opinions do not respond to the 10 sentences handed down and another 20 that are on the way, which establish that “legislators must legislate a more favorable law for users based on August 2019, the moment the first freezing with a PEN Decree”
*Economic and tax analyst
by Fabian Medina
