Will there really be peace in Gaza and will all Israeli hostages really be released? A major exchange of prisoners and hostages is expected to take place this weekend, a first step towards a ceasefire or even a peace truce. This could bring an end to this Gaza war after two years, in which an estimated sixty thousand Palestinians and more than twelve hundred Israelis were killed. And in which hundreds of Israelis were held in Gaza for a long time.
Four questions about the hostages.
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How many hostages are still held in the Gaza Strip?
When Hamas and other Palestinian terror groups entered Israel in cars, paragliders and motorcycles on October 7, 2023, they murdered hundreds of people, including civilians. 251 others were dragged from kibbutzim, military bases and the Nova music festival. 378 people were also murdered at that festival. Some of the hostages were caught while helping others get away.
Two years later, an estimated 47 hostages remain in the Gaza Strip; the 48th hostage under discussion is an Israeli soldier who was killed during the 2014 Gaza war and whose body was never returned. About twenty hostages are said to be still alive, according to the Israeli government; the status of two others is uncertain. At least 26 hostages are said to have died and been buried in Gaza.
More than half of the people who were taken hostage on October 7 are now free. Some of them were released at the end of November 2023 during a short-lived ceasefire, in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners. Hostages were also exchanged for prisoners during the ceasefire at the beginning of this year. Eight others were freed during Israeli military operations, including Noa Argamani. Images of her being taken away from the Nova festival on a motorbike while her boyfriend was held by two other terrorists went viral around the world.
Just over a hundred hostages are known to have died or been killed: by Hamas, by Israeli bombings or because they were shot dead by Israeli soldiers who mistook them for Palestinian militants.
Who is still stuck now?
All 20 to 22 hostages who are believed to be alive are male. All but one – the possibly deceased Nepalese student Bipin Joshi – are Israeli. Among them are two soldiers. Nine of the hostages were kidnapped from the Nova festival, some of whom are known to have helped others flee or helped the injured. Among the living is Avinatan Or, who had to watch his girlfriend Argamani being driven away. The deceased or killed Israelis are also all men; in several cases they were taken hostage with their entire families, but their wives and children were released earlier.
How are the hostages doing?
Little is known about the exact condition of the hostages – other than indications that they are still alive. Sporadic videos shared by Hamas show that the men are generally emaciated. This was visible, for example, in a video from early September, in which Guy Gilboa-Dalal was allegedly driven around Gaza City. He had previously appeared in other images: he and another hostage had to watch others being released. Images of Alon Ohel also recently appeared. After seeing it, his family concluded that he had probably gone blind in one eye.
The hostages hear little or nothing about the fate of others. For example, Eli Sharabi only learned when he was released last February what had happened to his wife and two daughters on October 7: they had been murdered, he writes in his recently published book in English.
It is also unclear where the hostages are being held. Some of them are believed to be in the tunnels that Hamas has dug under Gaza. But Noa Argamani stated after her release that she was employed in several apartments. She was washing the dishes when Israeli soldiers entered the house and freed her.
Recently, Hamas hinted in a propaganda message that the 48 remaining hostages would be in or under Gaza City: the Al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s military wing, claimed in September that they would all become a ‘Ron Arad’ if the Israeli army invaded the city. Arad is, or was, an Israeli air force pilot whose plane crashed over Lebanon in 1986. He was then taken hostage by a Lebanese group. Nothing has been known about his fate for decades.
A week after that message, Hamas also reported that after a bombing of Gaza City, communication had been lost with the hostage takers of Matan Angrest (one of the two soldiers still held hostage) and Omri Miran. But it is not known whether they are actually in Gaza City, and whether they were also hit by that bombardment.
What happens to the bodies of the killed hostages?
Former intelligence chief Arik Barbing said last year about the hostages that there will probably be “some Ron Arads.” That sound was according to CNN repeated this week by an adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Hamas does not know where all deceased or killed hostages are buried. This could, for example, be because those Israelis were held hostage by terrorist groups other than Hamas itself. The chance that all hostages will be reunited with their family members therefore appears to be nil.
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