Wherever you look in the world, there is currently no shortage of political and geopolitical rubbing points. And no trifles. After the relief of the corona pandemic that many countries seem to have largely overcome, the direct consequences of climate change are once again being felt on all continents. There are fears of economic decline, an energy crisis and a faltering food supply. This gloomy picture is reinforced – and partly caused – by a bloody war in the heart of Europe and the threat of armed conflict in the Far East, where the issues of ‘North Korea’ and ‘Taiwan’ make the news almost daily.
Against this grim backdrop of rising tensions, it is not surprising that in recent days the world has been eagerly awaiting a meeting between two of the world’s most important leaders, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. For the first time, both spoke in that capacity on Monday in Bali, ahead of the G20 on the Indonesian island.
The fact that Xi and Biden treated each other kindly in Bali this week, shook hands and spoke at length about many of those thorny topics can be seen as a win. Because relations between the two powers have been ice-cold in recent years and have suffered visible dents. Taiwan’s status is by far the main bone of contention, but the mutual concerns are much broader: from Chinese human rights violations to US economic policy towards China and vice versa, and the struggle against climate change. This year, the Russian invasion of Ukraine was added, in which China is not making enough efforts to change President Putin’s mind in the eyes of Ukraine’s allies.
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Given the major power struggle between China and the US, the ambition at the moment cannot be much more than a stabilization of the tense relationship, in the hope of building mutual trust. At least in Bali, Xi and Biden seem to have succeeded in laying a tentative foundation for further diplomacy, acknowledging that world powers must take their responsibility when it comes to international security.
In any case, Washington and Beijing seem to agree that bringing up the Taiwan issue will hinder further talks. While Biden denounced China’s “aggressive actions” toward the island, Biden pledged that the US will not change its traditional policy of not formally recognizing Taiwan.
Both Xi and Biden seem aware that the challenges facing the global community are far too great at the moment to add to the fire. Biden sees no reason for a “new Cold War”; Xi hopes he and Biden can steer their bilateral relationship “in the right direction.” But each in his own way, and with all reservations. For example, the Americans underlined that Xi also believes that Putin should not threaten Ukraine with nuclear weapons; the Chinese themselves emphasized Xi’s position that a “showdown between superpowers should be avoided” around Ukraine.
They were all words of caution, weighed on a gold scale. In a diplomatic sense, it means a small step forward. If a summit meeting between two world leaders in this uncertain time can be called ‘cautiously hopeful’, then that is a bright spot.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of November 17, 2022