Warlords and Rebels Reconcile in Chad – But Not All

With his hand on his heart and dressed in a white boubou, a traditional robe, he came down the plane stairs on Thursday, the feared rebel leader, back in Chad after 17 years in exile. “I am happy and emotional to be back in my country,” spoke Timan Erdimi67, whose troops advanced three years ago with pick-up trucks to the capital N’Djamena, only to be stopped by French bombers.

So this week they trickled in, the warlords of large and small rebel movements, factions and splinter groups, who have been trying to oust and kill each other since the Sahel country gained independence from France in 1960. They are back, sometimes after years in other countries, having signed an agreement granting them amnesty in return for their participation in a ‘national dialogue’ that should finally reconcile Chad.

key moment

For five months, negotiations took place in a 5-star hotel in Qatar between some 300 rebels and representatives of the military transition council that has been in power since last year. That happened after President and ex-warlord Idriss Déby was killed at the front. At the beginning of August, an agreement was finally reached. The date for the start of the dialogue, which should pave the way for elections and the return, finally, of stability, was already set: 20 August.

In exchange for a cease-fire and a general amnesty, talks will be held in the coming weeks and months about, among other things, a new electoral law and the possible integration of fighters into the army.

„A key moment for the Chadian people,” UN Secretary-General Guterres said beaming. But there is no sign of hope the day before the start in N’Djamena. “The situation is very tense,” political analyst Hoinathy Remadji told Zoom from the capital. “You feel the uncertainty and nervousness. Everything can turn around like that.”

Also read: Chad rebels – now accomplices of the French, now their enemy

It is feared that the conversations are already lost before they have started. Two of the main rebel groups refused to sign the agreement in Doha. Including FACT, the Front for Change and Concordat in Chad, whose attack killed President Déby last year. And she’s not alone. The most prominent citizen movement platform also withdrew, as did a major opposition party. Both wanted to take to the streets this weekend to protest what they see as a disguised attempt by Chad’s ruling elite to stay in power.

Their distrust focuses mainly on General Mahamat Idriss Déby (39) who, after the sudden death of his father, had the constitution suspended and took over power. Son Déby promised a transition period of one and a half years and a national dialogue to reform the country and silence its weapons once and for all.

In doing so, he also kept calm Western and regional allies, for whom Chad, with its strong army, is an indispensable partner in the fight against jihadists in the Sahel. For example, former colonizer France, who still supported father Déby when he came to power in a coup d’état in 1990, remained silent. Anything to keep Chad’s house of cards afloat.

Pick up guns again

So there was a lot of pressure on the negotiations in Doha, says analyst Remadji. “In fact, the outcome was already decided. There had to be a dialogue. The date has already been set.” Of the approximately fifty groups that were represented, about forty signed. Including the Union of Resistance Forces of the graying Erdimi, a cousin of Idriss Deby. That is a victory, says the analyst. “But look who’s missing: the movement that drew its weapons last.”

In a statement, FACT wrote that it could not sign the agreement because important demands were not met. For example, the rebels wanted the immediate release of their prisoners, the guarantee that members of the transition council cannot stand for election and fair representation in the discussions of the rebels, opposition and the government. Of the 1,400 participants, the vast majority would now be close to those in power.

In Chad, many fear that the rebels who have now been excluded will take up arms again. In an interview on the local radio station Omega, a spokesperson for FACT denied this: “War in no way solves the problems, it can only be done through dialogue,” he soothed. And: “Our door is not closed, we are always open to negotiations.”

The question is how true those words turn out to be. These are not the first reconciliation talks being staged in Chad in an effort to rein in rebel groups. But the violence never stopped.