With the campaign for the regional and municipal elections on May 28 already underway, and six months before the general elections, the battle between Pedro Sanchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo It has been shaken by the irruption on the political board of a new actor. Addthe electoral platform of Yolanda Diaz, has debuted in the polls causing an earthquake in the expectations of the left-wing parties. He PP continues in the first place and could govern if it is supported by the extreme right of vox, with which he could add an absolute majority. On the other hand the PSOE and, above all, your partner United We Can They suffer a strong setback that capitalizes on the new brand of the Vice President of the Government, which would be placed as the fourth political force.
Sumar’s landing marks a turning point in the voting trends on an electoral board always prone to volatility that provides the evolution of the economy or the setbacks of the Government and opposition. Specifically, during the month of April, Díaz’s platform has redistributed the whole of the vote progressive, which is now divided between the PSOE, Sumar and Unidas Podemos but, at least for now, is not growing. The strength of conservative bloc It is also waiting for the impact that the 28-M verdict may have.
The average of all the polls on the general elections published since April 2023 (it was on April 2 when Díaz presented Sumar) keeps the PP in first position and expands to 5.6 points the advantage over the PSOE, which represents 2.2 points more at the end of March. The gap has widened due to the setback that Sánchez has suffered due to the arrival of Sumar. Actually, Feijóo, who would now achieve the 30.1% of the votes, has fallen half a point. For his part, Sánchez would obtain the 24.5% of the votes, which means that it has lost 2.7 points since the end of March.
Converted that average into seats, the difference in favor of the Conservatives has widened to 39 seats, ten more than at the end of March, before the irruption of Sumar. The popular would get today 134 deputies and the PSOE, 95. During April and May, Feijóo has won one seat and Sánchez has lost nine. In April 2022, when the former Galician president assumed the leadership of the PP, the Prime Minister was 17 seats ahead of the popular ones. Since then, the conservatives have won 28 deputies and the PSOE has lost 11.
The calculations made by EL PERIÓDICO based on a formula used by Ivan Serranoa researcher at the UOC’s IN3 (Internet Interdisciplinary Institute), correspond to the Weighted average of the main published polls. The weighting is carried out, as in other formulas of this type, based on the sample size (the larger, the higher value) and of the field work date (the more recent, the more significant).
The respective communicating vessels of PP and PSOE (vox and United We Can) follow the trail of popular and socialist. Parallel to the growth of Feijóo, the extreme right of Santiago Abascal stays in the 44 deputies which it had at the end of March and stands at 14.1% of the votes, two tenths more than in February. Since its setback in the Andalusian elections, in June 2022, Vox has lost five points and 15 seats, but it could shield its status as the third political force in Congress without problems and would have the exclusive key for Feijóo to reach Moncloa.
The worst part of the earthquake on the left that causes the arrival of Sumar takes it Canwhich would yield fourth place to the Díaz brand. Add would obtain 10.5% of the votes and 27 deputies, a record practically identical to that of United We Can at the end of March. Since then, the party Ione Belarrawhich for now refuses to join the Díaz project, has lost no less than 4.4 points and 18 seats, so it would fall to 6.2% of the vote and 8 deputies. The other consequence in the polls of Sumar’s coming-out is that it absorbs all the representation of More Countrysince the formation of Iñigo Errejón he does support Diaz.
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In fact, Podemos would even surpass CKD, which in the last month has added a parliamentarian and stands at 12 seats. The rest of the formations move, for the moment, in figures similar to those of the end of March: together for Catalonia would obtain 7 deputies; GNP, 5; and Spain Empty1. Undermined by internal fractures, polls continue to leave citizens out of Congress. The remaining 17 seats in Congress would be shared out by other political forces.
These averages would allow Feijóo to reach Moncloa only with the support of Vox, since both forces would add 178 seats, one more than at the end of March and three above the absolute majority. The rights are still far above the 141 deputies that they harvested in the 2019 election and the popular leader, if he chooses to agree with the extreme right, would not need a third support or several abstentions to unseat the left. On the contrary, the sum of the progressive bloc, now made up of three parties, continues to be 130 seatsthe same as when April began, but it is still well below the current 155 representatives.