The battered Russian invasion force, which thought it would end the war with about 180 thousand soldiers, will be reinforced by hundreds of thousands of reservists. It sounds impressive. But in Kyiv, Vladimir Putin’s announcement did not cause panic. The Ministry of Defense sufficed on Twitter to quote success writer Stephen King. “Putin assumed he was dealing with a lap dog,” King tweeted. “What he got was a glutton.”
The fact that the Ukrainian army is still standing after seven months is not only due to well-motivated soldiers. It is also the result of a flawed Russian war plan, which, for example, did not provide for the elimination of the Ukrainian leadership.
General Retd Dick Berlin, the highest-ranking soldier in the Netherlands between 2004 and 2008, has been amazed from the first day of the invasion about the freedom of movement that the Russians allow President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals. In 1993, Berlin led the Dutch unit that took part in the operations over Yugoslavia as an F-16 pilot. He points out that the US in Iraq was not afraid to go after President Saddam Hussein and his generals.
Do you think Putin will try to correct this crucial flaw in his new war plan?
‘That remains to be seen. In the Gulf War, the question was which units and persons to take out to paralyze the Iraqi army. That did not happen in Ukraine. Military headquarters and ministries have not been bombed. Zelensky was left undisturbed, which is why he has now become such a crucial factor.
‘In a well-executed plan of attack, you eliminate the government and leadership. Then you paralyze the system. If the Russians had done this, it would have had a huge effect on the battle. It seems they are carrying out an uncoordinated plan of attack. Or do they just not want it? Nobody knows. Maybe we’ll see: they bomb Kyiv and cities in the west with brute force.’
Will this mobilization enable Russia to win the war after all?
“The Russian army now needs strike force and well-motivated soldiers. So artillerymen, tank crews, more attack helicopters and fighters. It remains to be seen whether the morale of the recalled reservists is higher than that of the current soldiers. They were lured to Ukraine with the story that they could earn money. With these new soldiers, the Russians try to regain the initiative. Russia will now want to show successes. That would give a big boost. But we just don’t know whether these reservists will be willing to fight in the future.’
You also see greater deployment of the air force as a precondition for Russian success. But the Russian Air Force has so far been conspicuous by its absence.
“This has surprised many in the West. The fact that the Air Force has not played a major role raises the question of their readiness. And are they unwilling to take risks? We have also not seen effective coordination between land and air forces. In the West, a great emphasis is placed on this. When done right, the interplay between units on the ground and in the air, you can create a very effective fighting force. Until now, this was not the case in Ukraine.’
Is this war not a losing battle for Russia?
‘If they want to win, so many things have to be handled differently: command and control, the morale of the soldiers, logistics, intelligence. Those are crucial conditions that were not fulfilled when the invasion began. Why would it suddenly go well with that? That cannot be done in a short time. This is a losing battle for Putin. He can no longer save the war. This doesn’t mean it will be over soon. There will still be a lot of struggle with a lot of deaths. If Putin is smart, he will start negotiations. Then he can get something out of it for Russia.’