As Italy heads into the final stretch of the electoral campaign, the average of all the polls predicts that one in four voters next Sunday will opt for Fratelli d’Italia, the far-right party led by Giorgia Meloni, one step away from becoming the first woman to head a government in her country, supported by Legha and Forza Italia to complete the majority with forces from the right. If the forecasts come true, the Democratic Party will be around three points behind the ultras, so that the participation of several small left-wing parties, which will total between 7% and 8%, will be completely insufficient, so that Enrico Letta , leader of the center-left formation, is the successor of Mario Draghi. According to the polls, not even a significant slippage of former 5 Star Movement voters towards parties supporting Letta or a last-minute mobilization in the most populated urban areas will prevent Meloni’s victory.
The forecasts do nothing more than reflect the profound change in the configuration of the electorate’s preferences. The heirs of the neo-fascism of the MSI can obtain up to 20 points more than four years ago, when they remained at 5%, while the starry they can lose around 18 points and remain at 12%, while the PD will not be able to overcome the identity crisis faced by its last two general secretaries, Nicola Zingaretti and Letta himself. With such a panorama, it would seem that the only unknown that remains to be revealed on the night of the 25th is with what margin the alliance of the right with the extreme right will be made with the Government. Only two factors leave a small gap so that the situation is more complex on the 26th: the first is the participation and the percentage that the abstention party adds; the second, the influence of the recent victory in Sweden of the extreme right.
The continuous changes of majority, the resounding disaster of the M5E as the government party, its credibility eroded by a succession of internal struggles and manifest incompetence in public management and the political cost paid by the Democratic Party to facilitate governance have been determining factors for the progression of Fratelli d’Italia, which will go to the polls with a nationalist project, of a populist nature, elusively eurosceptic and a confessed opponent of any form of understanding with migratory flows. The ultra formation, isolated by the multicolored alliance that supported Draghi, has remained protected from the wear and tear suffered by the Government and has been the critical eye desired by a society fearful of what the future may hold.
For European cohesion at a particularly difficult time, the verdict of the polls will be transcendental. Because Italy is one of the six countries that founded the Europe we know, because it is the third economic power in the EU, because it is the first recipient of the Next Generation program, because its public debt is equivalent to more than 150% of its nominal GDP and because the European ultras maintain an uncomfortable position towards the sanctions on Russia approved by Brussels. But it will also be transcendental for European democratic culture, to preserve the political construction of Europe and the distinctive features of open societies. Aspects always discussed by the ultra universe, although Giorgia Meloni has moderated her language at the last minute so as not to alarm those voters who have never before opted for the extreme right, but who are today looking for someone who can get the country out of the quagmire.