If elections were held today, a quarter of Flemish people (25.5 percent) would vote for Vlaams Belang. N-VA becomes the second party with 22 percent, while CD&V and Open Vld both fall below the symbolic limit of 10 percent. This is evident from the Grand Poll of ‘Het Laatste Nieuws’, ‘VTM NEWS’, RTL and ‘Le Soir’. Vooruit chairman Conner Rousseau becomes the most popular politician in Flanders for the first time.

    The Grand Poll of ‘Het Laatste Nieuws’, ‘VTM NEWS’, RTL and ‘Le Soir’ was conducted online by Ipsos between 21 and 29 November 2022 among Belgians aged 18 and older. It concerns 1,001 Flemings, 1,002 Walloons and 601 Brussels residents. The maximum margin of error is 3.1 percent in Flanders, 3.1 percent in Wallonia and 4 percent in Brussels.

    N-VA and Vlaams Belang keep jumping over each other in the Grand Poll, but this time Tom Van Grieken’s party has convincingly won the battle. If it were elections now, Vlaams Belang could convince 25.5 percent of the voters. That is the best poll for the party in a year and a half and significantly better than its election result (18.7 percent). The Flemish nationalists follow closely behind with 22 percent – a percentage they’ve been dangling around for some time. Bart De Wever’s party is still doing worse than in the 2019 elections, when N-VA got 25.5 percent of the voters behind it.

    Vooruit once again became the third party in Flanders, with 16.1 percent of the vote. The Socialists are doing significantly better than their election result of 10.8 percent. All other parties follow at a very wide distance and all even fall below the symbolic limit of 10 percent. CD&V achieved 9.6 percent. That is the worst poll for the Christian Democrats since the elections, when they already had a historically low score of 14.2 percent. Just like in June, Open Vld scores 9.3 percent, which was their worst poll ever at the time. Green can win over 8.7 percent of the voters. PVDA closes the list with 7.4 percent. All results fall within the margin of error.

    Rousseau is the most popular

    For the first time in the Grand Poll, Vooruit chairman Conner Rousseau becomes the most popular politician in Flanders. 16 percent of respondents say he best expresses their concerns. N-VA chairman Bart De Wever, the previous number one, is in second place. 14 percent feel best represented by him. Vlaams Belang chairman Tom Van Grieken completes the top three. That means that Prime Minister Alexander De Croo (Open Vld) tumbles off the podium.

    In Wallonia, PVDA chairman Raoul Hedebouw and De Croo share first place. It is striking that the prime minister scores better below the language border than in his own language area. 15 percent of respondents say they feel best represented by them. Sophie Wilmès (MR), who stepped down as foreign minister in July to care for her ailing husband, remains strongly in third place. In Brussels, Wilmès remains the popularity queen, followed by De Croo and Hedebouw.

    PS remains in charge in Wallonia

    PS remains the largest party in Wallonia with 23.7 percent. The French-speaking socialists therefore remain well below their election result, when they achieved 26.1 percent. MR can convince 20.4 percent of voters and thus equals its score of 2019. The extreme left party PTB becomes the third party below the language border, with 17.9 percent. A lot better than her election result of 13.8 percent. Ecolo can get behind 13.1 percent of the respondents, in 2019 that was still 14.9 percent of the voters.

    In Brussels it is the same top three: PS is the largest in the capital with 21.6 percent, followed by MR with 20.3 percent. PTB-PVDA becomes the third party, with 16.1 percent. Ecolo is seriously losing some votes: in the elections it was still the largest party with 21.6 percent, in the Grand Poll the ecologists only get 13 percent.

    Trust in government

    Only 33% of Belgians still trust the federal government. No less than six out of ten Flemish people no longer have a good eye for it. Prime Minister De Croo (Open Vld) has even more credit: 45% of Belgians have confidence in him. Remarkably enough, it is mainly Brussels and Walloons who believe in him, because 55% of the Flemish say they have lost confidence in him. De Croo was able to inspire the most confidence during the corona crisis, because then 57% of Belgians believed in him. Flemish Prime Minister Jan Jambon (N-VA) also has a confidence problem: only 30% of the Flemish people support him. The belief in his team is slightly higher: 37% have confidence in the Flemish government.

    Distribution of seats

    Despite the loss of CD&V, Open Vld, Ecolo and Groen, the Vivaldi government retains 80 seats in the federal parliament. It takes 76 seats to have a majority. Today, the seven parties together have 87 seats.

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