The first shelling in Trumps Trading War damage the Bourbon region in Kentucky

If you drive through the Bourbon region of Kentucky, you suspect that residents are always either in the church or the bottle. In the rolling green hills southeast of the city of Louisville, prayer buildings and ‘rackhouses’ from the landscape are left everywhere. Those dark, wooden warehouses with narrow windows are full of stacked barrels of bourbon. The drink is made of local corn, mixed with often Canadian rye, wheat and barley. Produced for the American market, but also for lucrative exports to Europe, Canada and Japan.

The first, extreme, shelling in Trumps trade war with both the northern neighbors and the European Union caused damage to a drink that recently decreases in popularity. In retaliation for import tariffs on Staal, among others, Canada has specific loads on bourbon, meat and electronics. The EU decided to reimburse Trumps on metals with a rate of 50 percent on whiskey, among other things, after which Trump threatened by 200 percent introduction to wine. The economy of this relatively poor and conservative state can suffer considerably.

The site of the famous Jim Beam, in Clermont, extends miles – including many rackhouses, distilleries, a restaurant, a bed & breakfast and a church. Everywhere is the sweet, wheeic scent of fermenting grains. The distillery from 1795 survived the reclamation a century ago and the unpopularity of Bourbon in the seventies and eighties. The survival is not suddenly at stake with a trade war. But the uncertainty is great. “We have no idea what’s coming to us,” says the young man in the JB store full of special bottles, T-shirts and caps. “We have no influence whatsoever.” He mainly hopes that the tourists will continue to come to Bourbonbakermat Kentucky, that is what his job depends on, he says above the loud Bluegrass music.

At the Willett distillery, slightly more south in Bardstown, an increasingly jolar group of friends from Tennessee explains how the sweeter whiskey from their state differs from the Bourbon that comes from Kentucky for 95 percent. The guide does not know exactly how many of the six thousand bottles that the family business fills every day for exports are, he says above a huge bathing corn slicer.

He fears financial setback, also with regard to the import of Canadian ingredients. “If we no longer get it, there will be either shortages, or the price goes up. Now that I think about it: probably both. ” Although he has – optimistic – his doubts whether the rates with which Trump threatens really comes. “He often shouts something and changes again soon after.”

Both men are instructed not to talk to the press. No distiller with significant international trade wants to say anything about the upcoming import duties. The historic, authentic-looking Bourbon makers are nowadays mostly owned by alcohol giants such as Bacardi, Brown-Forman, Campari, Sazerac and Suntory. Companies, some listed, that export Bourbon and import tequila, wine and vodka. They can therefore be hit on both sides of the trade war.

They do not want to criticize the policy of President Trump, partly due to the risk that they will rise Trump-loving Bourbon drinkers. Cameron Mattingly, from the little J. Mattingly Dokerij in Frankfort, notes extreme caution among his colleagues. “Everyone prefers to keep themselves outside of politics. The Bud Light drama has cut in a lot, “he says. That beer brand was born in 2023 by America on the right after it made a commercial with a transgender influencer. “It can cost you money to have an opinion.”

Political pressure

Those who worry out loud are politicians. The Democratic Governor Andy Beshear calls the import duties a “Trump tax” on the messages and gasoline of all Americans. The mutual rates on alcoholic beverages specifically bring Kentucky ‘considerable damage’.

“The president has better instruments to protect American employees without costs our families and companies,” wrote senator Mitch McConnell, the once most powerful Republican. It is unlikely that Trump will listen to one of them.

Bourbon production generated a turnover of 9 billion dollars (8.3 billion euros) in 2023, of which 2.2 billion in salaries. It yielded Kentucky 358 million tax money. In this state, 23,000 people work directly or indirectly in the industry, which went through a big bloom for the first twenty years of this century. There is fear for the distilleries, the farmers who grow corn and the caskers who produce the roasted oak barrels.

It is no chance That the EU and Canada choose Bourbon as a product to tax in response to Trumps taxes. The retribution is intended to have a maximum of political impact: in states that voted for Trump, as 65 percent of Kentucky did in November. Canada is so angry that already purchased American spirits out of the shelves was taken.

Changed taste

Mary and Jay Sheldon enjoy a Kentucky Mule cocktail (Bourbon, Gingerbier and Lime) on the sunny terrace of the Willett Dokerij. They moved from the predominantly Democratic Minnesota to the Republican Kentucky twelve years ago. “Because of the climate and the political climate,” says Mary, in a gray T-shirt with an image of her new state on it. They are the warm summers, mild winters and the high humidity that Kentucky make so suitable for corn and bourbon.

Since the Sheldons are retired, they like and often go to various bourbon makers. “It is a great industry full of traditional world brands and small, new start-ups,” says Jay. “I used to be a wine drinker, my taste has adapted to my zip code.”

Their political taste has not changed and they see no harm in Trumps arguing with neighbors and allies. “They have benefited from us for too long. We are no longer the ATM of the world ”, Echoot Jay Trumps plea that deliberately damages a shortage of the America trade balance. “What Trump is doing now is negotiating as a businessman. Maybe it brings us some pain in the short term, but in the end there will be a new balance. And people keep drinking bourbon. “

The question is to what extent and at what price. During the trade war that Trump in his first term unleashed lost bourbon makers in Kentucky half a billion in international income, shows figures from the product board.

At the same time there are problems on the home market. After two decades, the American whiskey consumption grew with last year almost 2 percent. Especially at a time when many barrels that have been mature for years are ready for the bottle. Brown-Forman, in addition to Jack Daniels the owner of Woodford Reserve and Old Forester, fires 12 percent of the staff.

At the Mattingly Dokerij they are also worried while they do not export. “Through inflation, we see that people who were still willing to count 150 dollars a few years ago for a bottle that they did not know, now do not want to spend more than $ 65. The import tariffs will not help with that, “says Cameron Mattingly. “We have considered going on the international market, but for the time being we are already happy if we can grow again in the United States itself.”

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