After the favorable results for the Government in the legislative elections, the apparent calm in the exchange market seems to have been too short-lived. The financial pressure returned strongly on the dollar, which on Tuesday the 28th recovered pre-election levels and once again approached the ceiling of the band. The retail dollar jumped 45 pesos and was sold again at $1,505 at Banco Nación, while private investors had it higher. On Monday the 27th, however, the US currency had fallen from $1,515 to $1,370, almost 10% in one hour, but as the day progressed it gained momentum and closed at $1,460. In the market, such movements were attributed to the fact that the United States Treasury took advantage of the foreseeable post-election collapse to recover part of the invested dollars.
The rumor in the city of Buenos Aires is that the North American Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, ordered to stop intervening in Argentina, after achieving the objective that the coalition led by Javier Milei gAnalyze the legislative elections. This version agitated local operators who called these movements the “Javo risk”, and no longer the “kuka risk”. However, this Wednesday the 29th, private estimates based on the stock of remunerated liabilities of the Central Bank indicated that the US Treasury would have sold about US$ 2.1 billion in the exchange market and that the pesos obtained would have been placed in Letters in the Central Bank.
Consulted by NOTICIAS, the Finance expert Yanina Lojo explained: “The initial reaction of the exchange market after the elections reflects, more than a sign of distrust, a stage of natural readjustment after an intense electoral process. Investors and operators usually adjust positions in the face of the temporary uncertainty generated by any political or institutional change, even when the result confirms continuity. In this case, taking profits and seeking coverage are common movements in the days following a large-scale electoral event.”
“In recent weeks, Argentine assets had registered strong advances, with improvements in bonds and in the Merval, so a technical adjustment was to be expected. Global factors also play a role: the strength of the dollar internationally and the volatility in raw material prices tend to amplify local movements. In the medium term, the challenge will be to consolidate the stability achieved and translate it into greater exchange rate predictability. If the government maintains the fiscal and monetary course, it advances with reforms that strengthen competitiveness and manages to expand the genuine foreign exchange, the foundations for more sustainable stability are on the table,” said the financial expert.
For its part, Matias Francoa specialist in SMEs, highlighted how these movements impact the Argentine market. “It simply went up, within what was logical, predictable and established by the government. We are overturning the cycle of ups and downs,” clarified the consultant and added: “The government has to take more and more responsibility for responding. The best thing that can happen for Argentina, SMEs and families, in this new post-electoral scenario, is that President Javier Milei does not have his hands tied, stop putting a spanner in the works,”
In dialogue with NOTICIAS, Franco concluded: “Clear rules of the game are coming, where labor modernization, the encouragement of formal employment, the promotion of production and investment, and administrative simplification, will lead us to become a country where hiring is not a risk of life or death, but an opportunity.” Analyst Yanina Lojo closed: “Trust, in this context, is built with consistent signals and time; the first steps have already been taken, and the scenario invites prudent optimism.”
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