Rutte IV would become the cabinet of major ambitions in the field of climate and nitrogen. Everything had to change. What turns out after a year and a half? Where the cabinet wanted to speed up, there is only a delay. The government’s inability to meet the self-set deadlines was once again apparent this week.
Minister of Agriculture Piet Adema (CU) has already tempered expectations in recent days. Where the minister previously called it “crucial” that there would be a first draft version of the agricultural agreement in May, he now suddenly changed his tone. Support would be more important than the deadline.
Mediator Johan Remkes advised the cabinet in November not to impose the nitrogen approach from above, but in consultation with all parties involved: farmers, nature organisations, supermarkets, banks, provinces. Poldering, the Netherlands needs to get out of the nitrogen impasse.
Minister Adema set to work on that assignment. After months of negotiations and many missed deadlines, the agricultural agreement was not finalized this week either. The negotiating parties, including the agricultural and horticultural organization LTO, will meet again in June.
Only when there is a draft, LTO wants to consult with its own supporters whether they will sign the agreement. Farmers’ action groups Farmers Defense Force and Agractie have called on LTO to ‘cut down’ on the agricultural agreement and say: prepare for new demonstrations.
The final agreement must show how the agricultural sector can make the switch to a sustainable form of agriculture, in which the quality of nature must not deteriorate. According to the coalition agreement, in line with European objectives, the agricultural sector must reduce nitrogen and CO2 emissions and take more account of, for example, water and soil quality.
Not only the agricultural agreement, but also the buy-out scheme for farmers who emit a lot of nitrogen and want to stop voluntarily (so-called peak taxers) is delayed. The European Commission recently approved this plan, but the government has not yet completed the website that farmers can use to check whether they fall under the scheme.
BBB profit
The failure to reach an agricultural agreement has consequences for many other dossiers. Without this agreement, it will be difficult for provinces to give substance to the ‘area plans’ that they must submit before 1 July. In it they must describe what they are doing to limit nitrogen emissions, improve water quality and achieve climate and nature objectives.
That deadline turned out to be unrealistic, wrote NRC earlier. “The agricultural agreement, the buy-out arrangements: everything is shifting, but July 1 remains,” said Henk Jumelet, CDA leader in Drenthe. It is not clear to the provinces exactly how the area plans should take shape without an agricultural agreement.
A further complication is the BBB profit in the Provincial Council elections. In the continuation of the agricultural negotiations in June, the party may frustrate hard regulations for farmers through provincial councils (who participate in the discussion).
Moreover, since the BBB’s victory, relations within the cabinet have been in turmoil. For example, the CDA’s support for nitrogen policy has almost crumbled. The delay in the agricultural dossier suits the CDA well and gives the party more ammunition to challenge its own nitrogen deadlines. The agreed nitrogen plans, such as a halving of emissions by 2030, are therefore under great pressure.
Achieving the climate objectives also largely depends on the progress of the agricultural file and the regional plans of the provinces. Last month, when Minister Rob Jetten (Climate and Energy, D66) announced additional climate measures – to achieve its own goals – agriculture was spared.
In addition to less nitrogen, agriculture also needs much less CO2 emissions and measures were lacking for some of those emissions. At the time, Jetten was not in favor of implementing additional agricultural regulations. Instead, he moved this sensitive issue to the negotiating table of the agricultural agreement, where CO is also being considered.2-reduction.
The cabinet also expects a great deal from ‘tailor-made’ agreements with the twenty largest polluters when it comes to making the industry more sustainable. These ‘tailor-made agreements’ must state how big the industry’s task will be and how the sector will achieve this. So far, only a non-binding declaration of intent has been available from a few large companies, such as Shell.
Only when these agreements with the industry and the agricultural agreement have been arranged will it become clear whether the expected greenhouse gas reduction will be achieved. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) was very critical when it presented Minister Jetten’s supplementary climate package. Of the vast majority of the measures, at least 85 percent, it is unclear whether they are effective.
“The need for adequate solutions is urgent, but the government’s clout is fading,” says the Council of State in its recent annual report. The Council of State calls on the cabinet to make “hard choices”. It is precisely those kinds of difficult choices that the government is now pushing to negotiating tables where the sector (agriculture, industry) can help decide. If the negotiations on the agricultural agreement really come to nothing, Rutte IV will still be forced to come up with the nitrogen measures himself.
A version of this article also appeared in the May 20, 2023 newspaper.