(updated version)
RUST (dpa-AFX) – So far, the Junge Union has been a secure power base for the Chancellor. During the election campaign, the party’s young people stuck up posters tirelessly and stood by Friedrich Merz’s side in all weathers. But the dispute over the government’s pension package divides both sides: at the JU’s Germany Day, things become increasingly quiet during the Chancellor’s speech, and then he hardly gets any applause during the debate. Critical questions from the delegates, however, are enthusiastically applauded. Can the JU, which has several members of the Bundestag, overturn the plan?
In his speech on Saturday in Rust, southern Baden, the Chancellor supported the draft law of his black-red coalition and thus against the party’s young talent. He felt like he was really being insulted by the Chancellor and wants to stick to his rejection of the legislative package. And CSU boss Markus Söder, an important power factor in the Union? He appeared at the same location the day after Merz on Sunday – and showed equal understanding for Merz and the boys’ criticism.
What is the dispute about?
The focus is on the so-called holding line for pensions, i.e. the level of pension protection in relation to wages. In the coalition agreement, the CDU, CSU and SPD agreed to extend the pension level limit at 48 percent until 2031. The draft pension law approved by the cabinet also stipulates that the pension level should be around one percentage point higher than under current law even after 2031. The Young Group of Union MPs in the Bundestag criticizes this and argues that this is not agreed in the coalition agreement.
What does the Junge Union say?
The Junge Union and also the young members of the Bundestag are concerned that the follow-up costs will massively restrict financial flexibility in the next decade and will be at the expense of contributors and thus the young generation. JU boss Johannes Winkel made it clear to the delegates in Rust: “This pension package with follow-up costs of 120 billion euros beyond the coalition agreement must under no circumstances happen like this.”
What does Chancellor Merz think?
Merz, on the other hand, wants to agree. “Yes, I will agree to this pension package with a clear conscience once we have it up for a vote in the German Bundestag,” he said in his speech. He called on the party’s young people to participate constructively in the debate. “But not by saying what doesn’t work,” he demanded. We have to discuss together what’s going on. “Does anyone seriously believe that we will win an undercutting competition? Who offers the lowest pension level?” Merz shouted into the room. “You can’t be serious!” You won’t win elections that way.
Does Merz give in to the criticism?
In the “Report from Berlin”, Merz countered the critics by saying that the draft pension law in question corresponds exactly to the coalition agreement. It’s about the period up to 2031. “I support that we plan for the period after 2031 in ours Pension system fundamentally change something.” The Pension Commission will be set up this year for this purpose. “It will also be staffed in such a way that those who are now critical of everything are included.” The commission should complete its work before the summer break in 2026. The legislative process will begin immediately afterwards.
These steps could also be made clear in an “accompanying text”, such as a motion for a resolution, to the current draft law, said Merz on ARD. He assured that he would try to work with the Junge Union and also with the Young Group in the Bundestag. “But as Chancellor I am not just responsible to one group, I am responsible to the entire country.”
And Söder?
The Bavarian Prime Minister showed understanding for the Chancellor. He said at Germany Day that he would not stab Merz in the back. “Friedrich Merz also has to hold a coalition together.” However, Söder spoke out in favor of further negotiations with the SPD. “I think you already have good arguments and you have to weigh them and take them into account. And we also have to talk to the SPD about it,” said Söder to the JU. And obviously with a view to SPD leader Lars Klingbeil, who had previously ruled out changes: “Such pure SPD basta from the side is not possible either.”
How much money is involved?
The Junge Union assumes that the draft law could place an additional 118 billion euros in burdens on social systems and ultimately on taxpayers from 2031. Merz sees it differently and argues that he assumes that other decisions will be made beforehand. “We will do everything to ensure that this burden does not occur,” said Merz.
Is this a generational conflict?
Not really. The lines of conflict run right through the Union. Merz’s Economics Minister Katherina Reiche (CDU) shares the JU’s arguments. The pay-as-you-go pension should not lead to a further burden on additional wage costs – reforms are unavoidable. In this respect, the young group of Union MPs was right, said the 52-year-old. She later added: “We have passed the present draft law in the cabinet. The pension reform commission will soon begin its work. If the draft law has successfully passed the Bundestag’s deliberations, which I am advocating for, the results of the pension reform commission must be incorporated into the legislation during this legislative period.”
The JU received support from Baden-Württemberg’s CDU state leader Manuel Hagel, who called for further negotiations. If the draft from Labor Minister Bärbel Bas (SPD) comes to fruition, there will no longer be a need for a pension commission. This is actually supposed to make suggestions for reform. “The only thing you in the pension commission will be able to do is drink coffee, eat cake and think about whether you should donate 120 billion or 150 billion,” said the 37-year-old.
Even the head of the Senior Citizens’ Union, 69-year-old Hubert Hüppe, expressed understanding for the young people. “The concerns of the young generation are justified, especially with regard to pension financing and demographic change,” he told the Germany editorial network.
How dangerous could this be for the coalition?
If the young group of Union MPs sticks to their rejection, the coalition will lack a secure majority of its own. The group includes 18 members, but the CDU, CSU and SPD only have a majority of 12 votes in the Bundestag.
However, it could well be that not all MPs are present during the vote due to illness, for example, and the required number of votes will therefore be lower. When voting on simple laws, a simple majority of the votes cast is sufficient. Without the 18 votes from the Young Group, the coalition still has 310 votes. That would be enough for a coalition majority if all of these 310 MPs were present and voted yes – and at least 11 of the opposition were missing. Then there would be a total of 619 votes cast and the required majority would be exactly 310.
However, it is difficult to predict this. There may also be a risk that the project could go through with votes from the AfD or the Left. Both would be an extreme risk for the coalition and for Merz.
What’s next?
Now we should talk again. Parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn (CDU) offered the young party members in Rust to continue discussions on the topic. You can’t stop looking at each other to find an acceptable solution.
At the weekend, however, SPD leader Klingbeil immediately rejected any potential considerations of discussing the project again with the SPD, as indicated by CSU leader Söder. “I tell you clearly: Nothing will be changed in this law,” said the Vice Chancellor at the state party conference of the SPD Baden-Württemberg in Ulm. “We are on the subject of pensions. We will pass this in the Bundestag.”
What else the pension package includes
It is a classic compromise between the three coalition parties. In addition to the stop line, there are also Union projects such as the expansion of the Mother’s pension which is particularly important to the CSU, and the active pension. CDU parliamentary group leader Spahn is clear that the project to stabilize pension levels is one of the SPD’s most important concerns: the issue was about as important for the coalition partner when it joined the government alliance as the change in policy on migration was for the Union, he said./dna/DP/he