As the economy accumulates tensions, typical of the abrupt inflationary deceleration and the change of relative prices during the last year, taboo issues appear that the government prefers to move away from the axis of the public discussion. At first it was the controversy for the retirement adjustment formula, then it was the cut of discretionary transfers to the provinces and finally, as the exchange rate lost land in real terms, The question of what was its price to understand whether or not it was delayed.
Deciphering. And how a sample of this apparent distortion indicated reversal in less than a year of the balance of the tourist balance, palpable in the queues to cross Chile, in the flood of Argentines on the beaches of Brazil and the increase in air reserves to the preferred destinations, but the INDEC He illuminated with numbers: in January the exit abroad of tourists by all the roads was 1,927,000 people against 721,000 who entered (the negative balance was 1,207,000 tourists).
In summary, in January the broadcasive tourism grew 73% compared to the same month of 2024, while the receptive was reduced 20% in an interannual form. In a recent investigation of the economist Marcos Cohen Arazi of the IERALIt emphasizes that the imbalance was greater, because receptive tourism was 14%/15% below the level of those years, respectively. “Thus, the most disproportionate imbalance is also”, He adds. As always, explanations are multicausal but the abrupt change in prices relating to dollars sounds like the most obvious.
The economist Fernando Marull He also points out that the remarkable unbalance has to do with the exchange rate, but there is also a positive relationship with the recovery of real wages (average) in dollars. By February 2025, it estimated at US $ 1,091 (to the “Blue” change) while, in the same month of 2018 it was US $ 1,405. This could mark two relevant points: the fall in all this time of the salaries measured in dollars and also that this did not have the same predator effect on the reserves as another era of “cheap dollar” caricatured by behaviors of the “deme two”. Wholesale operators claim that almost 70% of ticket purchases and other exterior expenses are made with their own dollars and thus avoiding the “tourist dollar” that has more taxes. Therefore, they do not use the vast majority, always scarce, of the reserves.
In this regard, the bold prophecies that the summer season in the Argentine tourist sites were going to fail were not fulfilled, so it could suggest that the demand for the goods and services of the sector not only translated into the “import” of the service in question but also occupied the local infrastructure.
Intensity. What evidenced the “drainage” of dollars, duly relativized, is an issue that is more serious: the purchase mattress of dollars to recompose the reserves (which was not fully achieved, are still negative) was made “thanks” to a recessive year, at least in the first three quarters. But the level of interannual economic activity of December has already yielded a growth of 5.5% and all projections estimate a sustained recover during this year. In Spanish: more imports of supplies and intermediate goods will be demanded that are almost two thirds of what is bought outside.
Normalize the external equation, made visible through the elimination of the “stock” acquires for this reason a different relevance and happens to be a garment of negotiation in the new matured agreement with the IMF. But, above all, with the restriction of the electoral year that, in this case, implies reaching the month of the elections with the economy with a sense of control and with the two variables: the still dollar and the “dominated” prices. Perhaps, that explains the hypersensitivity of the economic team and the same president with any approach to review the unstable status of the balances achieved.
Guidelines
For the chief economist of the Mediterranean Foundation, Jorge Vasconcelosthere is at first glance, a conflict between the Government’s interest in avoiding devaluations and ensuring that the inflation rate will drill the floor of 2% monthly and the IMF recipe book that, under the current conditions of the Argentine economy, inevitably demands policies that allow us to begin recovering reserves of the Central Bank (on the margin of the fresh funds that can be injected) and to be able to access international debt markets within a reasonable time.
“It is a pulse that has as a backdrop the fate of the ruling party in the legislative of October” interpret. The differences between the government and the fund staff are relative, because the ruling may not achieve a quiet and manageable macro towards the months prior to October if they begin to accumulate devaluation expectations. And, from the point of view of the IMF, before the end of the stocks, the priorities at this stage would be focused on curbing the deterioration of the current account of the payment balance and starting to recover external reserves. “Capital entry and interest rate level should find a reasonable balance between March and October and this will not be possible to accumulate imbalances,” Vasconcelos Judgment.
Surely, it suggests that the discussion is focused on the part of the exchange restrictions that are contraindicated for the aim of starting to recover reservations. If in the end, the IMF accesses a program that includes a significant contribution to the financing needs of the country for 2025, it is possible, which first on that agenda is the question of the dollar “Blend”, the scheme by which exporters liquidate 20 % of their operations in the free market.
If the “blend” was eliminated, it would be achieved that, between April and December of this year, the offer of dollars in the official market is increased by about US $ 13,000 million, at the cost of discouraging foreign currency influx towards the free market. But this alternative should foresee its effects: 1) What would happen to the exchange gap if there is less offer in the free market; 2) What compensatory measures could be applied to the free market is not unbalanced; 3) At what level would the Export and Imports Exchange Rate be unified and 4) Would the devaluation of 1 % monthly follow from there, or would a flotation band scheme go? Too many questions to affirm that everything is under control in a global scenario, which is also a Pandora box. Pure adrenaline.
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