Piper Sandler: After a quarterly balance sheet, the Nvidia share will climb a new all-time high

• NVIDIA makes an agreement with the US government regarding China exports
• Large customers have announced huge AI investments
• Piper Sandler-Analyst awaits new record high of the Nvidia share

In April it looked as if Nvidia was being slowed down by the US government on his course of success. Washington banned the export of Nvidia’s H20 chip into the realm of the Middle Kingdom in the effort to stop China’s progress in artificial intelligence, although this version specially developed – and weakened – in order to comply with the strict US export regulations.

But now the Trump administration has again given the green light for its export to China. There was an extremely unusual agreement: the US government will collect a share of 15 percent in the event of sales of AI chips.

After the U.S. sales ban has been lifted, Nvidia now wants to generate sales again in China. Before the US blockade in the spring, analysts estimated that Nvidia will sell H20 chips worth more than $ 20 billion to China this year.

China probably advises against Nvidia’s H20 chips

However, various press reports followed the latest agreement between the Trump administration and Nvidia, according to which Chinese authorities have encouraged local companies to avoid the use of the H20 processors, especially for government-related projects. This could be due to the fact that Beijing wants to promote the use of domestic technologies.

Maybe there are also security concerns behind it. The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) had announced at the end of July that Nvidia representatives had been asked for a conversation in order to comment on alleged weaknesses such as location functions or “back doors” in the relevant H20 chips and to present technical documents. However, the Chinese internet viewing authority did not refer to its own technical findings, but referred to statements by MPs and AI experts from the USA. In a blog post, the US group now made it clear that its chips contain neither back doors, kill switches nor spyware.

Piper Sandler analyst optimistic to China business

Harsh Kumar from Piper Sandler is not unsettled by the measures of the Chinese authorities and remains optimistic for Nvidia’s China business. As “Tip Ranks” reports, the stock exchange expert sees a decisive factor in the agreement between the US group and Washington, which could significantly change the demand structures in the October quarter.

He expects the US government to accelerate the permits for customer licenses in view of the new 15 percent turnover. He therefore expects the demand in China to normalize after October at a growth pace of around 12 to 15 percent per quarter.

The Piper Sandler Analyst assumes that the first positive effects are already reported in the report for the second quarter of the 2026 financial year (July 31, 2025). Nvidia will publish this annual report on August 27th.

Record high of the Nvidia share expected

Furthermore, according to the expert, Nvidia is still in an environment in which the demand is greater than the offer. Even without China, the demand for high-performance computing (HPC) in the USA exceeds Nvidia’s production capacities. This pressure is likely to increase, on the one hand because the soon expected licenses for China are likely to trigger a strong catch-up requirement, on the other hand, because of the latest investment reports of large hyperscales, it shows that they want to increase their expenses for AI data center infrastructure.

In view of this, a new high for the Nvidia share is likely. For this reason, Kumar raised his price target from $ 180 to $ 225 and confirmed his overweight classification (ie buy).

Editor finance.net

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