The most important events and reports on the economy, central banks, politics from the program of Dow Jones Newswires
German GDP could have dropped in 2Q
According to ING-Europe chief economists Carsten Brzeski, the hard economic data available so far indicates that the German gross domestic product (GDP) stagnated in the second quarter or could even have dropped a little. “Retail sales and construction activity have dropped compared to the first quarter, and the small increase in industrial production is not sufficient to compensate for the expected burden of foreign trade,” he writes in a comment.
Fed should lower interest rates in 2026
The US interest rates are likely to decrease until the end of the year, but they will fall more clearly next year, writes Brendan Murphy from Insight Investment in a comment. Although the economic prospects clouded off, the inflationary influence of the latest US trading oils “make the reaction function of the Federal Reserve more difficult,” writes the head of the Fixed Income division. “Against this background, we expect the Fed to proceed carefully,” he writes. Insight Investment expects “more determined” interest reductions in 2026 as soon as the inflation pressure deteriorates and growth.
US tariffs have lost their shock factor
US tariffs seem to have lost their ability to shock the markets, says Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG. The markets would hardly have reacted to the developments in the customs area and seemed to have resigned themselves with the news, which could lead to dangerous complacency, explains Beauchamp. However, US President Donald Trump has signaled the willingness of further trade negotiations, which would be able to cancel some of the effects of customs threats, says Beauchamp.
Asia’s chance through Trump’s new trading period
According to the analysts of Nomura, Asian countries are likely to achieve better trade agreements under Trump’s new period. The new customs sets largely resemble those who have been announced on the “Day of Liberation”, and the deadline of August 1 gives the Asian politicians time to negotiate a better agreement. Although India, Taiwan and the Philippines have not received any letters from Trump, further letters could be sent in the coming days and weeks, add. Nomura assumes that India will soon complete a cheap trade agreement, while negotiations for Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia will continue.
Trump wants to deliver weapons to Ukraine again
US President Donald Trump has announced that the United States will be supplying Ukraine with weapons again to help it defend itself against Russian attacks after trying to move Moscow for negotiations on the end of the war for months. “We have to enable them to defend themselves,” Trump said at a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the help for Kiev. “They are hit very hard. Now they are hit very hard. We will have to send more weapons.”
+++ Economic data +++
Taiwan Consumer prices June +1.37% GG previous year (Prog +1.6%)
Taiwan Exports June +33.7% GG previous year (Prog +24.5%)
DJG/DJN/APO
(End) Dow Jones Newswires
July 08, 2025 07:30 ET (11:30 GMT)