Dutch people’s confidence in national politics has fallen sharply since the spring of 2021. The Social and Cultural Planning Office recently concluded that only such 40 percent of Dutch people had confidence in the government. This low level of trust is not without consequences. It makes it more difficult to implement complex policies. Voters who have lost confidence are more likely to vote for new or radical parties. And citizens will call for more participation.
First of all, if you want to restore trust, you have to the causes knowing the lack thereof. Political trust is often a direct response to the functioning of politics and government. Confidence is high if the government apparatus is honest and impartial, and if parliament represents citizens well (proportionately, substantively). Confidence increases when the government tackles problems effectively. And trust is declining due to scandals that touch the heart of democracy, especially if they have the fingerprints of both government parties and opposition parties on them – think of the benefits affair.
It is therefore logical that trust is low. Firstly, politicians allowed major scandals such as the benefits affair or the file on the Groningen earthquake damage to fester for too long. That directly damaged the integrity of the government. Secondly, The Hague postponed tackling major problems such as housing, nitrogen and migration for years.
And thirdly, national politics has been characterized by internal bickering for years. This became visible from the issue surrounding Pieter Omtzigt’s ‘function elsewhere’ in the spring of 2021, after which the formation at the time came to a standstill for six months. Afterwards, politicians continued to argue, as evidenced by the fall of Rutte IV, the difficult formation of the Schoof cabinet, and the disintegration of that cabinet in several stages.
The final conclusion: citizens have not been properly represented for years.
The decline in confidence is therefore not a sign of a crisis of confidence, but of a crisis of reliability. In fact, from a democratic point of view it is healthy that trust declines when politics and government do not function. We should only really worry if people continued to have faith in politics despite all the scandals, procrastination and bickering.
Anyone looking for solutions to this reliability crisis will therefore quickly end up in political behavior. That is where the source of low trust lies, so that is also where the way out lies. There are no easy institutional buttons we can push to restore trust.
Nevertheless, constitutional law scholar Paul Bovend’Eert instituted this NRC some institutional adjustments for (A ‘stable cabinet’ alone will not solve the trust problem, 27/11), including a higher electoral threshold.
That misses the point. The decline in confidence since 2021 is not caused by the electoral system, which has existed for more than a hundred years. In fact, Bovend’Eert’s mixed electoral systems depress political confidence. Proportionality stimulates trust, because citizens feel better represented, even if larger parties get bogged down in worthless politics or mutual bickering. In fact, over the past fifteen years it has repeatedly been small parties that were willing to jump over their shadows, that were willing to form coalitions, and that helped governments in trouble.
There is no reason for excessive pessimism about Dutch citizens. The Netherlands has not suddenly changed into a low-trust society. The decline in trust is targeted in terms of the object (national politics), time (from spring 2021), and cause (the reliability of Dutch politics).
News from RTL that only 4 percent of the Dutch would still trust politicians, was widely picked up last summer, but upon closer inspection of the research it appears to be a grotesque caricature. Yes, political trust is low by Dutch standards. But even at this low point, trust in our parliament (the House of Representatives) is at a level comparable to that in Germany and Belgium, and considerably higher than in France and the United Kingdom. Moreover, we have had such low confidence figures before, such as during Balkenende II (2003-2006).
The citizen is therefore not the one we should worry about. The goal is not to restore trust, but to restore reliability. Politics must tackle the major problems of our time and not postpone them. Politicians must support the integrity of the government. The codes of conduct in parliament must be strengthened. And anyone who wants to improve representation must do so on the basis of content, and not on the basis of power games.
These solutions above all require party political will. It is hopeful that the two forming parties are currently committed to tackling some major problems and want to break with a culture of difficult party-political relationships. The question is whether other parties will follow that commitment.
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