News item | 26-09-2025 | 15:45
The asylum inflow in the Netherlands in the first months of 2025 is lower than previously foreseen. This is evident from the most recent multi -year production prognosis (MPP), who sent the Ministers of Weel and Keijzer (asylum and migration) to the Chamber. The intake expectations for 2025 and 2026 have therefore been adjusted downwards. The lower inflow of people with Syrian nationality is the most important factor.
Before 2025, the forecast model shows a total asylum inflow of approximately 40,000 in the minimum scenario up to 55,300 in the maximum scenario. Before 2026, the bandwidth is between 39,000 and 67,100. In the previous prognosis, these numbers were higher: between 52,000 and 74,800 in 2025 and between 45,200 and 78,900 in 2026. This includes first asylum applications, na -dollaries and repeated asylum applications.
Despite the lower intake expectation, the migration chain will remain under pressure in the coming years. That is why the government is taking various measures to get a grip on migration, such as the introduction of the asylum measures law, the two -state system and the implementation of the European migration pact. These measures focus on:
- limiting the inflow through legislation;
- the realization of sufficient reception capacity;
- stimulating the departure of rejected asylum seekers;
- Promoting the flow of status holders to municipalities.
Asylum procedure
The average granting percentage was between 70 and 85%in previous years. In the first quarter of 2025 this fell to around 40%. The average granting percentage was between 70 and 85%in previous years. In the first quarter of 2025 this fell to around 40%. This decrease is largely caused by the Syria decision and departure moratorium. In addition, the IND has implemented measures since July 2024 to bring the assessment of asylum applications more in line with European and international law, including the revision of group policy and the tightening of the credibility test.
Ukraine
The Netherlands continues to take care of Ukrainian displaced people. The prognosis is that in 2025 an average of 270 new registrations will be added per week, and in 2026 an average of 290 per week. About 98,000 places were realized from September 2025. The government continues to support municipalities in realizing and maintaining municipal care places for Ukrainians.
Prognosis
The MPP outlines a shared future image for the migration chain. A numerical picture of the inflow, flow and outflow within the chain is given. This is done on the basis of different scenarios, so there is always some uncertainty in the forecasts.