MotoGP Test Portimao, analysis: why Ducati is the favourite

Bagnaia and the Desmosedici appear unassailable, with a bike that has an excellent engine, supported by electronics that enhance it. And homologation for the whole season will eventually seal a substantial advantage

Massimo Falcioni

March 13, 2023

– Milan

Times in hand, the message coming out of the two days of testing on the spectacular ups and downs of Portimao less than two weeks before the start of the 2023 MotoGP season is clear: the reigning world champion Bagnaia-Ducati is ready for an encore and le Ducati, seven bikes in the first eight places, are the bikes to beat. There are many variables in the race and in the championship and therefore the test times must be taken with a grain of salt, but after dominating the session, the only driver to break the 1’38 (1’37.968) barrier and having been author of two Sprint Race simulations with an unapproachable pace for his opponents, Pecco is the absolute favorite on his Ducati. “I like the new bike more than the old one” is the final synthesis of Bagnaia who still won the last MotoGP world championship with the “old” one. Bagnaia in the pre-season tests proved to be more in place, convinced, determined and confident than at the beginning of the 2022 season, without showing flaws or weaknesses.

battalion ducats

And with regard to Ducati, we repeat: having seven of its riders in the first eight slots of the times (Johann Zarco according to 1’38.264) is proof that the Borgo Panigale manufacturer seems to be even more ahead than last season. What’s more, with his number one Bagnaia already at the top from every point of view, even mentally, with Enea Bastianini back at the top of the timesheets after the initial difficulties, even if his “friends” like Zarco, but also Luca Marini (who praises openly the superiority of Ducati), not to mention Alex Marquez (in Team Gresini he found speed, excellent times and even a smile) and Jorge Martin will become “bad” travel companions in the race. So Ducati, especially the engine, makes the difference today and this gives wings to its riders, without exception. Just hear the sound of the Borgo Panigale 4-cylinder up close in every corner to understand how much revs are “full” in all conditions, supported by a electronics super that allows you to use longer ratios than your rival racing cars, with advantages that translate into driving quality and safety and in lap time.

aprilia, the shake of the wings

Only Aprilia, although limited by the physical problems with Aleix Espargaro’s right forearm, today seems capable of keeping up with the Ducatis, foreshadowing a tough and exciting confrontation, all Made in Italy. Comparison also on the delicate aerodynamics sector where Ducati and Aprilia must be acknowledged for having given a jolt to motorcycling, following somewhat what has already been done by F1. The next championship will confirm that everything is needed to go fast, but that in order to win, in addition to the driver, the engine and chassis will be decisive. If Ducati is already 100% and even more, Aprilia (which closed the second day of testing by testing aerodynamic appendages of all kinds, some apparently imaginative on the forks and swingarm) is following in the wake of the Bolognese racing cars, even in thedelivery of power, and the set-up on the various circuits and the feeling and the handle of the riders will be decisive.

fourth-rate flicker

Among the losers, for now only from the stopwatch, Fabio Quartararo is saved. The former French Yamaha champion returned to the virtual front row (third time in 1’38.302), returning to the 2022 chassis and aerodynamics, but strengthened by the new engine, further demonstrating that in MotoGP the “4 in line” is everything other than finished. In any case, Quartararo once again showed what he’s made of, going strong not only on the flying lap, but also and above all on his pace and this bodes well for competitiveness in the championship. Here weighs the continuing bewilderment of Franco Morbidelli (19th time: 1’39.066) who, without a turning point which is moreover difficult to hypothesize, creates another problem for Yamaha. KTM enters the top ten with Brad Binder, but with difficulty in the pace which can mean problems in the race.

marquez slow and realistic

What about Honda? Pitch dark, with Joan Mir (13th 1’38.762), Marc Marquez (14th 1’38.778), Alex Rins (15th 1’38.782) within 20 thousandths of a second, but even far from the top ten. And what about Marquez? The eight-time world champion came out of the official pre-championship tests behind and with a huge gap from the leader (-0.810), but not at all critical of his bike, indeed “strangely” realistic: “You have to do with what you have and not get bad blood.” Between the champion from Cervera and the House of the golden wing it seems the classic situation of those couples who have nothing more to say to each other, ready to look for the episode that formalizes the crisis. The fate of the 2023 championship will also be decisive in this sense.

the engine to be sealed

In short, the times of the two days at Portimao confirm the continued state of grace of the Ducatis and also the high competitiveness of Aprilia, with the other manufacturers in difficulty, more or less accentuated, on engines, chassis or aerodynamics. It must be reiterated that these tests, in addition to being significant for the image, the media coverage of those in front and the morale of the riders and teams, are important because they represent the last opportunity for the teams to make definitive technical decisions, in particular regarding to the setting of the 2023 engine configuration which needs to be homologated shortly. Decision to be taken by Thursday 23 March, on the eve of the first GP of the season. The regulation requires that the new motor come Sealed on the eve of the initial race weekend, ditto for the aerodynamic configuration which will be valid for mid-season, after which it will be possible to change the fairing and little more. Another matter for the cycling, which essentially has no regulatory time constraints. These latest tests were also indicative because once an engine has been chosen, it will only be the one that can be mounted on the bike and valid for the entire season. Seen this way, the 2023 MotoGP World Championship seems to be a game that has already ended in favor of the Ducatis, but in motorcycling, never say never, also because predictions are made to be proven wrong.



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