You don’t keep up with it. And if you keep track of Donald Trumps power of radical decisions, turning and lateral comments, you hardly have any time to process them. To think: what does this mean? That is also the intention, it sounds: doing so much at the same time that it overwhelms it, for example in the congress. Flood the zone.
It is not only a lot, it is always different. Decisions are paused, still introduced and then changed again. Take Trumps trade war. There was an import levy of 25 percent on things from Canada. It was postponed. Then entered. A day later there were exceptions, a day later other exceptions.
Flashing light policy sounds too friendly to this rates industry. Entrepreneurs make three price changes in 48 hours dizzy. Canada and the US have highly intertwined production chains of cars: parts cross the border several times. You can still incalculate risks, with this kind of uncertainty cannot be counted.
In the midst of the chaos, the financial markets seemed cheerful to lean on one certainty: if the stock exchanges fall, the president binds. But that certainty also crumbles. Last week Trump and his team hinted to accept a recession and falling stock prices – on their way to a better America.
Where is the logic? The common thread? What does Trump want? Everyone has been psychologizing Trump for months. Logically. To get a grip you want to rationalize what is happening. Trump is one dealeryou heard, his threat negotiating tactics. But also people who said until recently to know what Trump was doing, are more often with their mouths full of teeth.
In the meantime, a new far -reaching theory has surfaced on what Trump is doing: protecting its own industry and ultimately forcing other countries to the dollar weaken without That it loses the status of reserve currency. The rates industry would belong to that.
Beg for some predictability
It could be, but for the time being the best summary of Trumps policy from Alan Beattie, trade journalist of the Financial Times. At the beginning of January he started a thread on messages on social medium Bluesky: “Welcome to Donald Trump’s trade policy. Nobody. Know. Something.” That uncertainty affects the economy, economists know. Companies postpone investments. After all, you do not know in which country you are going to build a factory. Consumers do the same.
Bosses of large companies that previously argued against high levies now beg for some predictability, reported The Wall Street Journal This week. Rather bad policy than these grilling. Logical, says Sandra Phlippen, chief economist of ABN AMRO. “Poor policy is less expensive than uncertainty. Entering one -off high import duties is to put a heavy stone on an ant heap. There is just chaos and then companies know how to find a trade route around the stone. With one -off shocks, companies are very resilient. ”
The uncertainty now is great, shows indices who measure that, for example on the basis of newspaper articles in which the word occurs. Or from surveys among entrepreneurs and consumers in the US. Maybe not as big as during the coronac crisis. When we had no idea of the impact of lockdowns on the economy. But even now the edges of the playing field seem to have disappeared. Which countries are still US friend, which enemy? Are we safe?
During the financial crisis (2008), the euro crisis (2010), the Coronacrisis (2020) and the Energy Crisis (2022) the unrest calmed a little when government leaders said: we do not let you down, your savings are safe, your energy bill will not be towering, your company will not go bankrupt immediately. Now the US government itself is the source of uncertainty. That is why something is lost: credibility. “If Trump pursues consistent, clear, moderate policy from tomorrow, who still believes that?” Says Tania Treibich, economist of Maastricht University.
Cross the ocean!
If nobody understands what you want, you lose trust. Phlips: “Less faith in a stable government increases the costs of doing business. Companies want to record agreements more often in contracts, or get paid earlier. ” Dealing with uncertainty costs manpower. Trump wants to deregulate so that companies have to incur fewer costs to comply with rules. But those employees can now get started in the ‘Make chocolate from the Zigzagkoers’ department.
Can the European Union benefit from Trumps with its boring predictability? And lure investments here? Companies, cross the ocean, here you know where you stand!
Perhaps. During the World Economic Forum in Davos, PHLIPS spoke major investors who are using their money on Europe. “Private equity houses that invest in the energy transition praised the predictability of Europe.” But it is precisely that is also uncertainty about that. Will the EU continue with climate policy and the greening of the industry now that the Union also wants to spend a lot of money on Defense? Treibich: “Here too, companies postpone investments. They wonder if the EU has other priorities. ”
Europe is struggling with three fundamental uncertainties, says PHLIPS: Trumps economic policy, safety and industrial rescheduling in Europe, now that the EU wants to become less dependent on fossil energy from abroad. “Where these uncertainties stand in the way or reinforce each other, I am not sure yet.”
This can be a chance, says Treibich, but then Europe must find its voice. “If Europe is stable and reliable but weak, then that is not attractive for companies. Because then European policy is still strongly influenced by grilling leaders in other countries. “