Among the scenarios considered for the Gaza Strip after the war, there is none that contemplates – not even remotely – the possibility of Hamas retaining power. All analyzes agree that the Islamist formation He signed his death sentence with the attacks of October 7 and that his days are numbered. However, it is often overlooked resilience capacity of this organization that, since its creation in 1988, has gone through all kinds of tribulations from which it has managed to emerge, at least until now, relatively gracefully.
After Hamas’s electoral victory in 2006, Israel decided to isolate the Gaza Strip from the world imposing a blockade by land, sea and air, and declaring it an ‘enemy entity’. By doing so, he hoped that the situation would become unmanageable and the Islamist movement would lose its support base. Not content with that, he launched a series of offensives to destroy their armed militias and assassinate their main leaders. However, neither Operation Cast Lead, nor Defensive Pillar, nor Protective Edge, nor Guardian of the Walls managed to undermine his authority. Worse still, these campaigns caused a high number of civilian victims and radicalized his positions.
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After the current campaign against the Gaza Strip, different plans for the ‘day after’ have been put on the table, all of them agreeing to rule out any role for Hamas in the post-war phase. The United States and the European Union consider that the best option would be for the Palestinian Authority to regain control of the Strip, although the prime minister, Mohammed Shtayyeh has warned that they will not return to Gaza on an Israeli tank and that a comprehensive solution is needed for all of the occupied territories. It seems evident that the Palestinian Authority, whose legitimacy is strongly eroded in the West Bank, considers return to Gaza a high-risk missionbecause she could be accused of collaborating with the occupation forces and doubts the ability of the international community to finance her reconstruction.
The Netanyahu Government has insisted on the need for Israel to fully control the security of Gaza to avoid rearmament of the Islamist militia. Some of his Cabinet members are in favor of rebuilding the colonies that were dismantled by Ariel Sharon in 2005 and even more extreme solutions, such as the expulsion of its two million inhabitants to the Sinai. Recently, Gila Gamliel, Minister of Intelligence, recommended to the international community: “Instead of sending money to rebuild Gaza or to the failed UNRWA [Agencia de Naciones Unidas para los Refugiados de Palestina en Oriente Próximo]can help finance resettlement and help Gazans build their new lives in their new host countries“Avi Dichter, Minister of Agriculture and former head of the Shin Bet, was much clearer: “We are deploying the ‘nakba’ in Gaza: Gaza Nakba 2023. This is how it will end,” referring to the ethnic cleansing of 1948 which resulted in the expulsion of 80% of the Palestinian population from their homes.