On 63 occasions out of 93 the league leaders became Italian champions at the end of the first round, as happened to the Nerazzurri in 2023. The year before, however, Inzaghi’s then team had lost him to Milan. And in 2002-03 the title went to Lippi’s Juve who, at the halfway point, were fourth, like Spalletti’s
Pio Esposito’s strike gives Inter not only the three points against Lecce, but also the title of winter champion. For the purposes of the calculation, in fact, it was the Super Cup recoveries that counted and not last weekend’s matches in order to declare the first round completed, and Chivu’s Nerazzurri achieved success and mathematically crossed the finishing line at the halfway point. In Appiano Gentile, regarding the symbolic title of January, two pieces of news arrive. One good and the other to be avoided.
SHIELD AT 70%
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The first, the good one, belongs to the statistical sphere: Inter has almost a 70% chance of winning the scudetto. In the history of the single-group Serie A, on 63 occasions out of 93 those who won the winter title went on to become Italian champions. A tradition that has also belonged to the Nerazzurri on several occasions: in January two years ago the team coached (then) by Inzaghi had finished the first round at the top of the class after overtaking Juve and had maintained the lead until the end, boasting the second star in the unforgettable derby with Milan on 22 April.
THE PRECEDENT FOR 2022
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The second news belongs to the cabal. And he may deserve the spells: it is true that Inter have almost a 70% chance of taking the title (to be precise we are at 67.7%, more than two cases out of three), but the Nerazzurri were also the last, in recent history, to take the title in the winter without however winning the scudetto in May. It was Inzaghi’s first season, the 2021-22 season: the Nerazzurri skidded on one of the last corners, in Bologna, opening up the Italian straight to their cousins.
BEWARE OF OUTSIDERS
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A little more history: since Serie A welcomed twenty teams with three points for a win, and therefore since 2004-05, only on four occasions have those who won the winter title not subsequently become Italian champions. It happened to Inter last, but there are also the cases of Milan (2020-21, curiously recovered by Inter at the time coached by Conte) and above all the two unfortunate rides of Sarri’s Napoli (2015-16 and 2017-18: in both circumstances the Azzurri lost the race against Juve). In the last twenty-one seasons, however, it has never happened that the scudetto went to a team that did not finish among the top two in January: the last time in which a winter outsider later became Italian champion in May was Lippi-bis’ Juventus, 2002-03. In that season the Bianconeri were even fourth at the halfway point. Who knows if Spalletti is taking notes…
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