As a consequence of the drop in the birth rate, the Spanish educational system will go from absorbing 7.5 million preschool, primary and secondary schoolchildren in 2013 to 6.5 million in 2037. A decrease of one million students. This is the devastating warning issued by the economic policy center EsadeEcPol in its latest report, titled ‘Schools are running out of children: an opportunity to transform the education system’.
ESO will lose 25% of its students: from 2.1 million in 2015 to 1.6 million in 2037
If fewer and fewer boys and girls are born, what will happen to schools? Answering this question is one of the challenges of the Spanish educational system. The same happens in Italy, Portugal and Greece. France and the US are saved because their birth rate is higher.
And the decline is already noticeable. Catalonia has started this school year with 20,000 fewer students in kindergarten and primary school.
For public coffers, fewer students does not mean less educational spending. On the contrary
From 2015 to 2037, the ESO will have lost 25% of its students in Spain. If in 2015 there were 2.1 million students, in 2037 there will be 1.6 million. The stage of primary will find its minimum sooner: in 2032 the number of children will be 2.4 million, far from the three million in 2017. Immigration cushions the blow somewhat, but not enough to offset the decline. Without the children of migrants, the panorama would be even more dramatic.
The collapse will be felt in the least populated municipalities and not so much in large cities like Barcelona or Madrid
Precedent in the 90s
It is not the first time that the decline in the birth rate has shaken the educational system. Something similar already happened in the 90s of the 20th century, when the children of the ‘baby boom’ left school. On that occasion, however, the impact was softer. Experts in educational policies ask the Government and the autonomous communities to act now to redesign the school network and avoid a collapse.
“There are two options. One is to do nothing and see that in a few years there will be many schools with very few students. The other alternative is to start taking measures now”
Lucas Gortazar, researcher at EsadeEcPol
The solutionsnoted in the Esade report and corroborated by other education experts, involves closing very small schools, implementing a good school transportation network to transport students, reducing the number of students per teacher, avoiding school segregation and betting so much on education for 0-3 years and Vocational Training (FP).
“There are two options. One is to do nothing and see that in a few years there will be many schools with very few students. The other alternative is to start taking measures now,” he summarizes. Lucas Gortazar, co-author of the report and specialist in education and social policy.
Fewer students, more spending
Between 2013 (historical maximum number of students) and 2023, Spain has lost 450,000 children under 16 years of age. In 2037, the figure will have exceeded one million. For the public coffers, Fewer students does not mean less educational spending. On the contrary. Spending per student increases given that all structures (schools, teachers and the system in general) remain the same.
Collecting data from Statistics National InstituteEsade’s analysis maintains that the drop in the student-age population has been a fact for a decade. It will reach its maximum in 2034, with 6.4 million boys and girls between 0 and 15 years old.
In a country where birth rates are not a state issue and children are seen as a burden given that policies for conciliation are practically non-existent, it is very difficult for fertility rate (average number of children per woman) exceeds the figure of two, a necessary condition to ensure demographic replacement. “The demographic reality in the West is that no country so far that has dropped below two children per woman has overcome this barrier again,” Gortazar highlights.
“The reasonable, prudent and realistic criterion of educational policy should be to assume demographic decline as a constantnot as a variable,” adds the analyst.
Unequal impact
The collapse will not affect all territories equally. It will be primed in emptied Spain and in the least populated municipalities. The Esade report predicts that Zamora, León, Palencia, Albacete and Jaén They will lose more than a third of the volume of children under 16 years of age that they had in 2013. Barcelona and Madrid will lose less than 10%. And there will be communities, like Balearic Islands and Navarrawhich they will not lose.
“Spain will have a polarized educational demand. A few densely populated centers with less negative demographic prospects will concentrate abundant demand for schoolchildren. Meanwhile, many other points with demographic decline will have little demand,” explains Gortazar. That is to say, many schools with very few children.
More spending
The Esade report warns that the educational spending per student will grow considerably due to the drop in students. Maintaining a school with its basic services: teaching, cleaning, electricity (among others) costs the public coffers the same whether there are 10 students in class or 20. A report prepared in Euskadi in 2019 concluded that very small educational centers (between 50 and 100 students) have an average expenditure of 8,558 euros per student while public spending per student in centers with more than 400 kids was 3,972 euros.
Gortazar remembers that schools are living organisms that require important material and personal equipment. Teachers, counselors, psychologists, reinforcement teachers and different subjects… It is an entire organization and it must be strong. The optimal, in his opinion, are centers with two or three lines (classes) per course.
A school with two students
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These days, back to school, certain centers draw attention. For example, him San Román de Cameros school (La Rioja) has opened its doors with only two students: Carla, 6 years old, and Carmen, 11.
The Esade report highlights that continuing as before and not making any changes to the school network has the “alleged benefit” of protecting the emptied Spain, “protecting the proximity to the school and small municipalities.” “But it will do so at the gigantic cost of producing a more inefficient and less equitable system. More dramatic decisions will be postponed in the future.” Is a strategy with expiration date: Ultimately, the process of demographic decline will eventually arrive and many classrooms will end up emptying.