In the training match, the Helmarii have a great place to develop their game towards the Nations League.
Helmarit meets Iceland. JUHA TAMMINEN / AOP
The most interesting game of the day
The national match between Iceland and Finland stands out from Friday’s offer.
Helmarit will face Iceland on Friday in Reykjavik while preparing for the autumn League of Nations. Finland has progressed from victory to victory in 2023, but now the challenge is a lot tougher than before. Iceland belongs to the A group in the League of Nations, while Finland plays in the B league.
It has been communicated from within the team that Helmarie’s goal is to move up to A, so these July national matches against Iceland and Scotland will serve as a good sparring and level measurement. There were a few omissions in the composition of the helmets, when Emmi Alanen, Joanna Tynnilä mixed Anna Tamminen had to stay out of national matches.
Along with Finland’s future opponent Scotland, Iceland are the toughest European teams that did not make it to the World Cup starting next week. The Icelandic way of playing football can also be seen in the women’s national team: the team defends closely and disciplinedly, is strong in special situations and attacks against tap. In the FIFA ranking, Iceland is 14 places above Helmarii. The mood of the hostesses has also been good – Iceland is progressing this year without losses, Switzerland was the last to go down.
Game-wise, Helmariten’s biggest challenge is to respond to Iceland’s game speed and situational toughness. Physically strong players are up against them. Marko Saloranta under him, the defensive play has been quite successful so far, but the opponents have not been tough, so Helmarien Alakerta has not had to be under too much pressure either.
Against Iceland Concentrations and special situations will certainly produce challenges. You have to be careful in your box. You should be able to win second balls and you should be able to get the pieces into safe waters. On the ball, Finland must be able to be more straightforward than before.
The teams last met twice in 2019. At that time, Finland was scoreless twice when the opening game was played 0–0 and Iceland won the second 2–0.
In my own papers, Iceland is about two classes harder. With the home advantage, Iceland is always in the 60 percent favorite position in the match. I have estimated 25 for a draw and 15 for Finland’s victory from the probability field. Veikkaus gives the home win a coefficient of 1.74, so there is little value in Iceland. However, there is more to expect in the Asian tie-up. Iceland -0.75 with a coefficient of 1.95 is enough until the games, because my estimate for the event is 55 percent and the limit coefficient is then 1.82.
The expected goal value for the match is slightly above 2.60. In the goals market, I’m in line with the odds. The most likely outcomes based on these estimates are 1–1, 1–0 and 2–0.
The match starts at 21:00.
The best betting tip of the day
In addition to Iceland, there is also interest from the baseball side on the draw front on Friday. In Ostrobothnia’s local away team, Seinäjoki is offered a too high odds against Koskenkorva.
After all, it is above all a match of great emotions, but also of stakes – we can talk about a six-point match with a clear conscience. The last four teams of the series are fighting for the last “pitiful place” and at the same time also for the 11th place, which avoids the relegation playoffs. Kossu is two points ahead of Seinäjoki, having played less games. The seasons of both teams have been sticky, but Koskenkorva has been in an even more anemic shock than Jymyjussit in recent weeks – below is a streak of five losses.
The teams met less than a month ago, and Seinäjoki took a direct 2–0 win at home in a really high-running battle. So a small mental advantage to visit for a day. On a basic level, it is quite impossible to find a level difference between the teams either. The locker department goes practically flat. The home team is ahead in the home team, but Seinäjoki is a joker Aapo Hiltunen has been hitting great the last few weeks. Kossu is one of the weakest in the series in terms of forward power, so there is rarely food available for hitters.
In the Derby, the home advantage is smaller than normal, and when there are no significant level differences in the basic level or in the mood, I am not able to place Koskenkorva as a big favorite as the odds say. There is a tasty game idea for the underdog. The final winner of the match is the passel game format. Seinäjoki’s coefficient of 2.76 has a lot of air and there is also room for a coefficient update, because the estimate for Jymyjussie’s win is 41 percent, i.e. the limit coefficient is 2.44.
The match starts at 18:00.
Today’s games: Iceland – Finland 1, Asian handicap -0.75 (odds 1.95)
Koskenkorva – Seinäjoki 2, the final winner of the match (odds 2.76)
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