The top games live on DAZN
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When the ball rolls in Warsaw on Friday evening from 8:45 p.m., the Polish national team (13 points) will have to keep its chance of direct World Cup qualification alive with a win against leaders Netherlands (16 points) – the top game in Group G is there live on DAZN.
But even with a home win against Elftal, resulting in a direct comparison and a tie on points, the Poles would be dependent on Lithuanian help on the last match day. The reason for this is a UEFA rule: In the event of a tie, the goal difference counts first, then the number of goals scored – the direct comparison comes third. Assuming Poland beats the Netherlands, Robert Lewandowski’s team would have to score more points against Malta on November 17th than the Dutch did at home against Lithuania, as the goal difference of +19 to +6 clearly speaks in Oranje’s favor.
This goal difference rule is bad for Poland – and good for Germany. The DFB will be in Group A from 8:45 p.m. as league leaders with nine points in Luxembourg (0 points), while their pursuers Slovakia (9 points) and Northern Ireland (6 points), who each have worse goal differences, will meet. This game also takes place on Friday evening at 8:45 p.m live on DAZN.
Julian Nagelsmann’s team has a goal difference of 8:3. This means that the Slovaks with 5:2 and the Northern Irish with 6:5 goals would most likely have to overtake the DFB in terms of points to secure first place. If Germany wins against Luxembourg and the Northern Irish are successful again against Slovakia, the DFB could even afford a narrow defeat against the Slovaks on the last matchday and would most likely qualify as group winners. In this scenario, all three teams would have twelve points – Germany could plan for the 2026 World Cup thanks to the goal difference.
Thanks to goal difference: a draw could be enough for Austria to win the group
This rule was probably intended to ensure that large nations also take games against supposedly small opponents seriously. This happened in Group H with Austria (16 points), Bosnia (13) and Romania (10). With two games remaining, thanks to this rule, coach Ralf Rangnick’s team can hope for a draw in Cyprus, as they probably have the unassailable best goal difference at +16.
If Romania (goal difference +5) wins in Bosnia (+8) and against San Marino (-31) and the Bosnians are successful on the last matchday in Vienna, all three nations – assuming Austria draws in Cyprus – would have 16 points. In the end, Austria would book their World Cup ticket thanks to a 4-0 and 10-0 win against small San Marino. All Group H games are there live on DAZN.