Since last weekend it was shown that, from January 2024 to today, they never stopped intervening in the monetary and exchange part, both from the BCRA and from the ANSES FGS, losing many dollars necessary for the economy of our country to be put into operation and does not decay in the most notable indicators, such as consumption, production, unemployment, poverty and indigence. These should really be analyzed against the same indicator of the previous year and/or the last two years of the same agency that generates them, to have the same form of measurement.
In recent months, even the only statistical fact favorable to the government began to show bullish trend: the INDEC consumer price index. From May 2025 to today a ladder of increases was recorded: 1.5% in May, 1.6% in June and 1.9% in July. The data of August is expected to be published on September 10, exceed 2.1/2.2%, as a consequence of price lists with increases between 7% and 9% earlier that month. These values were already reflected in the indices of Córdoba and La Plata.
In the monetary and exchange, at three hours of the publication of Sera faster and fasterthe Secretary of Finance, Pablo Quirno, ended up bleaching the intervention with funds in dollars of the National Treasury, supposedly reserved for the fulfillment of obligations. $ 1.4 billion would have been used, of which near USD 600 million intervened in just four days, the strongest being the strongest, with USD 285 million. That same day almost half of the whole week was consumed, without holding the exchange rate: all dollars closed up.
This reflects that the political noise that the government itself incorporates with corruption scandals – from the complaint of an official of the disability area close to the president – generates geopolitical repercussions. As a consequence, a delegation headed by the head of the AFIP was not received in the United States and the Visa Waiver program process was paralyzed.
Between Thursday and Friday, BCRA reserves fell USD 323 million without relevant payments. The FGS, from April 14 to today, intervened for more than USD 9,500 million in 2030 debt bonds, originated in the 2020 restructuring that implied a removal of 47% of the capital and interest on the USD 135,000 million taken between 2016 and 2018 by the Sturzenegger -Caputo Tandem, reactivated since December 2023. This amount does not include the USD 45,000 million of the loan with the IMF between May and August 2018.
To this was added the legislative rejection of the presidential veto on the National Emergency Law in Disability. That standard represents an expense of just USD 18 million a year, while the corruption scandal in the area would be USD 10 million unduly stolen.
In parallel, the Crypto dollars market – which used to be the only one almost without intervention, although now it is also under investigation for the Libra cause – closed on Friday between $ 1,379 and $ 1,406, and on Saturday night it quoted between $ 1,394 and $ 1,414. The rise is attributed to the expectation of an official defeat in the province of Buenos Aires, which would imply the cessation of exchange interventions, with direct impact on the population’s pocket.
Therefore, if an exchange stampede is unleashed from 10 pm on Sunday, September 7, the responsibility will not be the one to election, but who loses. The Argentine market would only accept a defeat of less than 5 points; In 2019 he had already warned that the limit was 2 points, but the difference ended up being 18.
Fabián Medina He is an economic and tax analyst
