The omnipresence of the IMF in the debate on the design of economic policy had a new chapter during this week. The terms of the agreement reached and whose small print arises from the main points, pass through the specific destination of the funds provided by the international body: the sanitation of the reserves of the Central Bank, eroded by its gigantic portfolio of “non -transferable letters”. That is, it could not be used directly to rinse an eventual reappearance of the red of the treasury that was the engine of the BCRA’s patrimonial emptying.
Under pressure. The obsession to close an agreement with the IMF is due to arithmetic: while with a country risk above 700 points (that is, 7% more than what the United States treasure pays for its medium -term bonds), accessing the background portfolio of the fund implies lowering almost 5 points which would charge the private market, reluctant. The unknown revolves about the amount by which maturities would finally be reschedu of the “small print” of an upcoming agreement, but would range between US $ 10,000 million and US $ 20,000 million.
In short, this aid adds an additional restriction to an economy that, in a few weeks he found several stones in his recovery path: the sudden thinning of international trade due to the kick on the Trump board in his tariff war; The probable deceleration of global growth for this year, the erosion of the presidential figure for uninforced errors and the battle against the clock for finding sufficient funds so as not to lack out of control the dollar and arrive with the perception of a “normalized” climate to the October elections.
Precisely, the discussion about the eventual “delay” of the exchange rate or at least the loss of competitiveness of production generates, above all, devaluation expectations that bring uncertainty and that presses on the exchange gap. Recall that the official exchange rate remains controlled and the stock is an electoral promise (of 20223) that remains to be fulfilled. The economist Osvaldo Giordanopresident of Ieral, maintains in the last work of the entity that the result of a cluster of bad decisions that have been made for decades, “Factors that conspire against the competitiveness of national production have been added, which complexes the discussions about what the equilibrium exchange rate is”. In his opinion, a more conducive approach is to assume that modifying the environment that conditions the development of economic activity there is a great opportunity to increase competitiveness. For example, “eliminating distortive taxes, improving infrastructure, increasing human capital, updating labor legislation, strengthening institutions and reducing bureaucracy are essential steps to relieve load on national production,” he emphasizes.
In ascent. According to data from the Ministry of Economy analyzed by the IARAF, the national tax collection would have increased by 8.5% real interannual in the first bimester of the year. But if taxes linked to foreign trade are excluded, the rise would be 21% in real terms. The taxes with greater fall (regardless of the disappearance of the country tax) were personal goods (-38.2%), export rights (-35%) and import rights (-1.5%). The taxes that increased were the one that taxes fuels (+255%), profits (+40%) and Social Security (36%) and further, VAT (+4%). Without Tax PAIS, the national tax collection grew by 12% real in February compared to the same period of the previous year and by excluding collection by taxes linked to foreign trade, real interannual variation would be positive for 21.6%.
Distortions Problems in the tax structure emerge when the collection lowers, but in reality the opportunity to make substantive changes arises when it increases, even because of the rebound after a crisis, as is currently the case. For the taxpayer César LitvinStudy Director Lisicki Litvin & Abelovich (Llya)it is important to keep in mind that it must be a path that tends to improve competitiveness and the simplification of the tax system, describing its problems with realism. “It is necessary to analyze the taxes that currently apply at the national, provincial and municipal level, identify and stop in the most distortive taxes that” boycotting ‘competitiveness, preparing concrete proposals and assuming new challenges to eliminate those taxes and simplify the tax system “sentence.
For example, For 2024 there were 154 taxes throughout the country, of which 45 were national; 25 provincial and 84 municipal. But only 10 of them raised 92% of the total. VAT headed the collection ranking with 27% of the total, followed by social contributions and contributions, with 17%. That is, 44% are at the head of consumers and workers directly. However, Litvin points out no less than 7.4% are taken by the taxes that are considered, distortive: Gross income (which accumulates 80% of the provincial collection), export rights, hygiene rate (municipal) and the one that taxes the debit and bank loans.
Federalism questioned. Another issue that threatens the equity and fiscal responsibility is the precariousness of the Federal Tax Copartition regime: an institutional debt unpaid since 1996 and whose main affected is the province of Buenos Aires. According to estimates IDESA On data from the Ministry of Economy, it contributes approximately 33% of the resources that form the co -participible mass, of which the nation appropriates 43% and the set of the provinces of the remaining 57%. But the province of Buenos Aires receives only 13% of said mass
These data show that it receives for the co -participation only 1 in 3 pesos that it contributes to the co -participate mass and is one of the main explanations for the paradox that the richest province in Argentina is dependent on the aid of the nation with discretionary transfers. “The bad incentives generated by co -participation are extensive to all provinces. Therefore, the priority is to establish a superior regime. Instead of placing all national taxes in the Copartipable mass stock exchange, VAT with gross income and municipal rates should be unified in a single sales tax that should be assigned to the territory where the tax was generated ”concludes its president, Jorge Colina.
Transparency. Finally, another issue connected to the tax structure is the little visibility of the different taxes they tax, especially consumption. Matías OliveroPresident of Logic, a non -profit entity that seeks tax transparency to facilitate the knowledge of consumers. Therefore, they look good at the national disposition to discriminate against tax charges in national VAT taxes, internal, fuels, from January 1 for large shops and since April 1, for other businesses. “As promoters of this regime, we send a letter to the 24 governors to answer the question of whether they are going to adhere to the regime or not and they already adhered the first five: Entre Ríos, Misiones, City of Buenos Aires, Mendoza, and Chubut”, Says Olivero. IThese are commitments and the decision depends on the legislature or a province decree, since it is not about creating a new tax but also changing the way of informing the consumer.
Many opportunities for improvement in sight to finally be able to comply with the promise to relieve the tax burden and raise more … as long as the “macro” helps, of course.
By Tristán Rodríguez Loredo
