Max Verstappen was still in Hungary that he would no longer win races in the 2025 Formula 1 season. But only three racing weekends after the summer break, the mood in the paddock has changed completely: After convincing victories in Monza and Baku, one of the most made questions suddenly is: Can Verstappen McLaren still challenge in the title fight?
A data analysis shows that Verstappen has been the fastest driver in the field twice in the past few weeks, measured by racing pace – something that had previously only been the case in Suzuka, Imola and Dschidda, even if he did not win in Saudi Arabia due to a time penalty.
Team members attribute his latest upswing to several factors. First, Red Bull’s approach has changed slightly: less blind dependence on data, more weight on driver feedback. Second, Verstappen explains that the knowledge of the RB21 is now used more effectively to meet the extremely small optimal set-up window.
And then there is the new underbody that Red Bull introduced in Monza. According to Helmut Marko, he not only brought more performance, but also improved the balance and slightly expanded the car’s work window.
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According to Monza, the key question was how much of this performance-specific was-a topic that Red Bull team boss Laurent Mekies spoke again after Azerbaijan’s Grand Prix: “We probably feel that we found some of the good we saw in Monza.”
“The combination worked very well in the slow curves of Baku at the same time. This is a different equation than in Monza, and that’s good news for us,” he said in an interview with Motorsport.com, a sister platform from formel1.de and Motorsport-Total.com at Motorsport Network.
More than three tenth lead in Baku
Verstappen had a comfortable lead in Baku. The distance to George Russell was more than three tenths per round, even if the numbers are not representative in all details.
McLaren and Ferrari were supposed to have been a bit faster based on the training performance, but could not show their true pace. Both teams suffered from disappointing qualifying and hung most of the race in traffic.
Mekies confirms this impression: “We will probably never find out the true racing pace of McLaren and Ferrari, but there is definitely no reason for us to refuse.”
What is waiting for Red Bull in Singapore
The “no reason for relaxation” is particularly true because the true endurance test follows next weekend: the Grand Prix of Singapore. On paper, he combines several factors that Red Bull does not lie: a bumpy city course and a layout that requires maximum downforce.
Or as Marko put it: “It is not only a high downforce, it is also damn hot there – and that doesn’t like our car at all. Singapore will be the real yardstick.”
The heat is actually a key factor because the rear tires of the Red Bull overheat relatively quickly, while McLaren has its strength in this area. In Monza and Baku, this was not a problem thanks to less wear and tear, in Singapore it comes to the fore again.
Mekies admits: “In Singapore, the equations are moving a bit. You continue to do the slow curves, but with maximum downforce. We had big problems in Budapest, and also before that. In addition, a much hotter route – and we know how sensitive we are on this point. But not only we, almost the whole field.”
Not a second Budapest for Red Bull?
Since Mekies Budapest mentioned, it is worth taking a look at the corresponding data. They show that Red Bull lost in McLaren in Hungary over a second per round – a huge deficit, the largest this season, apart from Austria and Great Britain.
And Austria was not representative either, since the values are based on Yuki Tsunoda after Verstappen was taken out of the race early by Andrea Kimi Antonelli.
Budapest was one of Red Bull’s season-and Hungaroring the last high-downforce route in front of Singapore. This underlines how big the challenge is next week and why it would be premature to speak of a title fight after two victories on low-downforce courses.
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Why Red Bull is confident
Mekies is nevertheless confident that the Hungarian scenario will not repeat itself: “I think we have made the car faster since then. Despite our problems there. I don’t think Singapore will be a second Budapest. Is it enough for victory?
Marko had already explained that Red Bull knew exactly what had gone wrong in Hungary, but could not fix the problem under Parc Ferme conditions during the weekend. In view of the progress of the latest weeks, Singapore is now also becoming an internal test for Red Bull to find out how “real” the upswing is on different types of route.
“We accept Singapore’s challenge,” said Mekies, recalling that Verstappen has never won there. Even in the dominant 2023 season, Red Bull stumbled in Singapore – Ferrari won. And 2025? “For what we want to find out, it is extremely important to see what suddenly no longer works there – and what continues to work,” said Mekies.
The Grand Prix from Singapore will not only an exciting test for outsiders whether Verstappen can still intervene in the title race – it also becomes a decisive yardstick for Red Bull itself. A weekend that should normally provide answers.
Incidentally, Lando Norris dominated there last year, while Verstappen finished second with 20 seconds – before the current World Cup leading Oscar Piatri.