The World Cup qualification brought a spectacular week of football. Nevertheless, the qualification mode is being completely put to the test in Europe.
Ireland clinched a play-off place in dramatic injury-time fashion in Hungary. Scotland was in ecstasy after the spectacular 4-2 win against Denmark, which was enough to secure direct qualification. Austria and Bosnia-Herzegovina fought a final for a place at the World Cup. Germany had to fight for direct qualification until the last matchday. For the four-time world champions Italy, it was only enough for a place in the playoffs.
There is something in the qualifying competitions in Europe that is increasingly lacking in many other football competitions: excitement.
Nevertheless, there is a trend in UEFA: the qualifying competition for the men’s World and European Championships should be completely reorganized. UEFA President Aleksander Čeferin confirmed at a meeting in Portugal in October that changes were on the cards. “Maybe the qualifiers could look different. There won’t be any more games, but a more interesting format. We’re thinking about that right now.”
UEFA President Aleksander Ceferin
Why the desire for change?
Even if the last matchday hardly provided any arguments for changes, the desire for them is there. One reason for this is the expansion of the World Cup to 48 teams. There are now 16 teams from Europe taking part instead of the previous 13. Since 2016, 24 of the 55 UEFA member associations have played at a European Championship.
This makes it increasingly difficult to create an attractive and exciting competition for fans with a less predictable outcome. But this is the only way to make qualifying for the World Cup and European Championships competitive against the national leagues, cup competitions, the Champions League or the Club World Cup when selling tickets, sponsorship packages and TV rights.
“I think it’s really important to revise the format”said Mark Bullingham, chief executive of the English FA FA. He is part of a working group at UEFA that is now looking into the issue. FA chairwoman Debbie Hewitt added that the number of teams taking part in tournaments had changed. “But if we stick with the same qualification model at the same time, it will probably no longer be the right form.”
England’s association chairman Debbie Hewitt with managing director Mark Bullingham
What changes are possible?
Two options are at least obvious, subject to other suggestions:
- The new mode of the Champions League is considered a success in UEFA. Such a format could also lead to top qualifying games such as Germany against Spain or England against France. These are currently not possible because the best teams are divided into the groups. Even the small teams would still have games against the favorites.
- Also conceivable a continuation of the league system from the Nations League. Here, the best teams would stay among themselves in the qualification for the tournament in League A, which would lead to more top games and should lead to more competition among the smaller teams down in Leagues B, C and D. Then the European Championship and World Cup qualification would alternate annually with the Nations League. However, qualification and the Nations League would be linked through promotion and relegation. This system already exists for women and UEFA has been happy with it so far.
A new system could be used at the earliest for the 2030 World Cup; qualification according to the current principle has already been decided for the 2028 European Championship.
What changes have there been recently?
55 associations generally send their teams to the UEFA qualifying competitions. The format of the groups has existed for decades, but has not always been the same.
- When qualifying for the 2006 World Cup, there were groups in Europe with seven teams that had to play a total of 42 games (12 per team).
- In qualifying for the 2024 European Championship, UEFA played in the long-standing format with ten groups, some of which had five teams and others had six teams.
- For the 2026 World Cup, UEFA changed the qualification and divided the teams into twelve groups, but reduced them to four or five teams. Some teams, including the German team, only had six games in qualifying.
The change was made primarily in order to be able to expand the Nations League final tournament. Due to the smaller number of games in the qualifying groups, the gaps were sometimes smaller – which made for excitement at the end.
Game number 42 in Group 1 in the 2006 World Cup qualification: Netherlands – Macedonia 0-0.
What other consequences could the changes have?
There are many reasons for FIFA’s expansion of the World Cup to 48 teams: In terms of sports policy, FIFA President Gianni Infantino can expect more satisfied associations because more teams can take part in the World Cup. The expansion means 104 games instead of the previous 64, which should also lead to higher income, which will also be used by the national associations. They will vote on Infantino’s possible re-election in 2027.
An expansion of the European Championship from 24 to 32 teams was also discussed at UEFA, but was initially rejected due to the devaluation of the qualifying competitions. A change in the qualification format could now enable the European Championship tournament to be expanded.
The schedule with 24 teams has already been set for the 2028 European Championships in Great Britain and Ireland. This is not yet the case at the 2032 European Championships in Italy and Turkey. In the announcement for the tournament, UEFA speaks of a tournament with 24 teams, but at the same time stated: “The number of participating teams and the number of games are provisional and therefore subject to change.”
The 2032 European Championships will take place in Italy and Turkey.