Against the background of a large blue cloth with the inscription Delivering Peace the three gentlemen sat next to each other on stage: American President Donald Trump, with his Rwandan and Congolese counterparts Paul Kagame and Félix Tshisekedi next to him. The trio came together to sign what is called a ‘peace agreement’ for the war in eastern Congo. “We are ending a war that has gone on for decades,” Trump said. “A great day for Africa.”
But behind this ceremony lies another agreement that Congo will not bring peace. “The fighting groups do not care about what is agreed at the negotiating tables,” says Stephanie Wolters of the South African Institute for International Affairs. “No progress has been made since the agreement in principle in Washington [in juni].” Led by the United States, Congo and Rwanda have been holding talks in Washington for months, while in Doha the Rwandan-backed militia M23 is holding separate talks with Congo under the auspices of Qatar.
There were doubts about this summit meeting from the start, precisely because there was no breakthrough. Rwandan President Paul Kagame said at a press conference last week that he was not yet sure whether he would travel to Washington. Within the Congolese government of Félix Tshisekedi, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Information do not think it is an appropriate time for such a meeting, as long as Rwanda does not make any concessions.
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How the fighting group M23 rearranged the balance of power in Eastern Congo
Last summer, the Congolese and Rwandan foreign ministers signed an agreement in Washington on a series of principles for peace. That’s it, as none of the complex issues in eastern Congo have been addressed since then. The fighting continues unabated, last week in North Kivu, in the area around Masisi and in parts of South Kivu. An even clearer indication of the lack of will for peace is that the Rwanda-affiliated militia M23 is further strengthening its grip on the east and is showing no sign of wanting to withdraw. Rwandan soldiers are also making no move to leave the area.
The balance of power changed dramatically when M23, backed by Rwanda, captured the cities of Goma and Bukavu early this year. M23 was preceded by many similar militias since Rwanda began to interfere in Congolese affairs at the end of the last century, but these groups mainly focused on military operations. However, M23 seems to want to establish itself permanently in Eastern Congo and is increasingly developing into a manager.
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Although numerous reports, including from the United Nations, indicate close cooperation between Rwanda and M23, both parties deny this. Rwandan President Paul Kagame also objects that his soldiers are active in Eastern Congo. In reality, Rwanda and M23 are closely intertwined, but this relationship is not explicitly mentioned anywhere in the peace talks.
The issues are being diplomatically danced around without resolving them
According to the UN, M23 had doubled its territory in April compared to a year earlier. The American research group Critical Threat published the State Building Project report in September. It states that the militia appoints officials at all levels of government and develops initiatives to gain control of the economy, including by collecting taxes on mining. It issues travel papers, appoints teachers and establishes courts. M23 is also said to have recruited approximately seven thousand new fighters. In addition to this administrative structure, M23 also directly interferes with daily life in the areas it controls. The movement issues marriage certificates and land ownership certificates.
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Like Rwanda, the movement says it defends the interests of Tutsis in the region. In recent months, she facilitated the deportation of thousands of Hutus to Rwanda, after which, according to local sources, Tutsis entered the deserted areas and took over the fields. Locals say many of the deported Hutus are of Congolese descent. Rwanda states that these are people connected to a Hutu militia that wants to overthrow the regime of President Kagame. According to Critical Threat, the establishment of a parallel administration shows that M23 pursues a long-term goal of self-administration of the occupied territories, regardless of the outcome of the negotiations.
Diplomatic dance
M23 controls several mines in North and South Kivu, including Rubaya with tin, tantalum and tungsten. According to Reuters, this earns the group about half a million dollars per month. That is exactly where Trump and his chief negotiator Massad Boulos – and also the father-in-law of his daughter Tiffany – are focusing their attention. The core of the American deal is that Congo guarantees security in the mining areas, in exchange for access to these raw materials, which will then be processed in Rwanda. M23 currently facilitates the illegal export of tantalum to Rwanda. The treaty provides that such trade must be legalized.
“There is diplomatic dancing around the issues without resolving them,” says Wolters of the South African Institute for International Affairs. The agreement does not mention M23 by name and Rwanda must only “stop its defensive measures”. “There is no mention of Rwandan soldiers in Eastern Congo and the support that Rwanda gives to M23. If no pressure is put on Rwanda, a peace process in Congo will never be initiated.” For those who point to Rwanda as the main culprit for the long-term crisis in eastern Congo, this means that Kagame could establish permanent dominance in the long term, a reality that the US under Trump may accept as a fait accompli.
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