Is there a new Middle East at the door? A Middle East with a different face? A large Middle East-and I don’t mean that a few countries from the neighborhood are stuck to it, but large as in a great past. I paraphrase statements by the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. His war with President Trump against Iran forms, as long as the Stakten-Het-Fires lasts, the completion of Israel’s clearance among his direct Vijnden after the bloody murder of Hamas of 7 October 2023. Netanyahu and Trump’s so-called Trump’s so-called Trump’s so-called trumps de Zogeheten de Zoothagse de Zogeheten de Zoopdagpdagse de Zogeheten de Zoopdagpdagse de Zogeheten de Zoopdagp. Nuclear program has been destroyed and with that, according to Netanyahu, “existential threat” for Israel has disappeared on the part of the Ayatollahs. Other sources see less damage to the Iranian nuclear program and therefore provide a new war if that outcome is not going to be Israel. Which will undoubtedly be the case. But that’s soon.
Netanyahu’s new, large Middle East is built in his words ‘dramatic expansion’ of Israel’s normalization with Middle Eastern countries after the ‘Abraham agreements’ with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan (as far as still participating). Trumps thousand-dings-negotiator, Steven Witkoff, suggested last week that there are developments underway on Abraham’s site. In an interview with CNBC he predicted “big announcements about countries that come to the Abraham agreements.”
Big announcements! And for that Syria is on the nomination. Note the land of the “jihadist with tie”, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who suspected the Israeli leaders in such a way that they lobbyed Trump to keep Syria weak and divided. But Trump met him in Saudi Arabiathought he was a crazy guy, and just pulled all American sanctions that made Syria’s resurrection impossible. In exchange, Sharaa had to embrace Abraham, what he was willing to do under the right conditions.
According to American, Israeli and Syrian Sayers are direct contacts, which, according to a source, can lead to results before the end of 2025. I don’t believe anything of that: first the withdrawal of the Israeli army from southern Syria, and then as literally Pièce de Résistance The future of the part of the Golan annexed by Israel in 1967 and in 1981. Israel will never return that. But it is true that Sharaa did not give a kik while the Israeli Air Force violated its airspace on the way to attack on Iran for twelve days. Yes, Iran was the friend of Sharaas enemy Assad, but such overflow rights for Israel are going down.
In the meantime, the Israeli war war in Gaza is going faster than unabated. And without the end of the war there will be no further normalization, not even with Syria and certainly not with Saudi Arabia, the main prize. Trump called Netanyahu about it. “Make the Deal in Gaza. Get the hostages back !!!”, he barked on Sunday On his truth social account. Two days earlier he had predicted that an agreement could be reached within a week.
According to a version of a Trump plan that is circulating, Hamas would transfer the remaining fifty living and dead hostages; Then his leaders would go into exile and four Arab countries together would take on the board over the Gaza Strip. To facilitate the reconstruction, every Gazaan who wants to be able to leave (again Rivièra again?). And the persecution of Netanyahu for corruption, “a big hero who has done so much for the state,” must be stopped by Trump.
It is not clear to me whether that is part of the Trump plan. But I also read that Netanyahu does not want the war at all, just a new ceasefire. And no gesture to the Palestinians. I think there is still no new Middle East, let alone otherwise or big.
Carolien Roelants is Middle East expert. She writes a column every other week.