This column can be thrown out unread if it turns out that Yevgeny Prigozhin has deceived us all and has secretly defected to Zelensky. But the chance of that seems negligible to me. Prigozhin is dead and Putin is his murderer, I dare to take poison on that, unless it is provided by Putin.
What astonishes me most in this is the apparent naivety of Prigozhin, who had a reputation to uphold as an unscrupulous scoundrel. Did he really expect that he was in no danger from Putin? That he could organize a mutiny with impunity against someone who depends on the unwavering loyalty of his followers?
Moreover, Prigozhin should have realized that he was more vulnerable in an airplane than anywhere else. On the ground floor he could still surround himself with a well-armed bodyguard. Putin should have caused a visible carnage to take him out there. A plane crash has the advantage for the perpetrator that he can pretend his name is hare for a while. Enough experience with the Russians: see the downing of MH17.
The liquidation of Prigozhin has all the features of a classic mafia murder. By definition, such a murder takes place in the context of retaliation. Books and movies about the mafia are full of it. Revenge, as the saying goes, is best served cold. That means not only with a cool head, but also at a later time, when the victim thinks he has nothing to fear anymore.
Putin initially reacted with spontaneous anger (“Treason!”) to the action of the Wagner group, but on reflection he must have understood that a real Godfather has to exercise more patience. He waits a while, consults with his most trusted aides and makes an assassination plan in the strictest secrecy.
In the meantime, he puts the future victim at ease as much as possible. “How are your children? Fine! Give them a pat on their head from me.”
Putin did this by not prosecuting Prigozhin and allowing him to leave for Belarus with his men. Just days after the mutiny, Putin is said to have had a three-hour meeting with 35 people, including Prigozhin and other top Wagner executives; they would then have sworn their allegiance to Putin and the fatherland. Prigozhin has said that his uprising targeted the military leadership, not Putin.
Prigozhin appeared to be a free man, he traveled freely throughout Russia and was even reported to have recently collected from the FSB security office in Petersburg his weapons confiscated from his home during the mutiny. All petting his little ball.
As I write this, the Kremlin has yet to comment on the plane’s crash. I suspect there will be two responses, one for internal use and one for external use. The internal reads: “Great work, guys. The bastard asked for it.” The external: “We deeply regret the tragic accident in which our legendary hero Yevgeny Prigozhin died. He has bravely given his life to the service of the Russian people. Further investigation into the accident will follow.”
A version of this article also appeared in the August 25, 2023 newspaper.