Close to Christmas, one of the big doubts is if the economy will continue to hold up Or if, on the contrary, the dark omens that, since last spring, have warned of a deep and prolonged crisis will come true. Despite all the difficulties of the moment, starting with inflation, I dare to predict that consumption will continue with the joy of recent months.
There are various data that invite optimism. Thus, the surprising strength of employment, as well indicated by the evolution of the labor market, which has assumed without adverse effects the recent labor reform that favors job stability, or the level of household savingswhich is still at high levels, after having reached record levels coming out of the pandemic.
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Some figures that come to coincide with some attitudes that also favor consumption. Among them, it is very relevant that This will be the first Christmas practically free of covid, after two years in which the risk of contagion seriously limited the hustle and bustle of the dates. At the same time, people and companies are less and less sensitive to the worst predictions and more accustomed to accepting uncertainty as a discomfort that has come to stay. What happened this autumn contributes to this: some dramatic months were asserting themselves and, nevertheless, we are entering winter far from the announced catastrophe. Nobody, not even the greatest experts, is unable to predict the future, we end up thinking that everything will go well and that, if a very fat one comes, we will get out of it, as it already happened with the coronavirus.
For all these reasons, what is foreseeable is a festival in which, without falling into the excesses of other times, lost dynamism is recovered, to the joy of commerce and restaurants. What can happen after Reyes is another story, today unpredictable and subject to multiple factors. So, to consume sensibly.