Analyst Richard Safran sees great potential for Boeing shares: According to the expert, the stock could take off strongly from 2026.
• Analyst Safran expects a significant Boeing upswing from 2026
• $5 billion burden weighs on short-term sentiment
• Price target signals massive potential
Boeing shares have had turbulent months. After the Q3 figures, which were published on October 29th, the share price came under significant pressure at times. But according to analyst Richard Safran from the analysis firm Seaport, the recent low could mark the starting point for a strong recovery from 2026. Safran is one of the most influential industry analysts in the US aviation industry. His verdict is surprisingly optimistic.
Delays in long-haul jets are putting Boeing under pressure
Boeing is struggling with delays for the B777-X long-haul jet. It was already clear before the Q3 report that another postponement would follow. However, the now confirmed one-year delay resulted in a higher burden than expected: $5 billion, as Boeing reported in Q3. According to Safran, many investors had only expected 2 to 4 billion dollars, influenced by previous charges of 3.5 billion dollars from 2024.
This new provision will cause the free cash flow to be postponed from 2026 onwards. Boeing also expanded the production block of the B777-X from 500 to 600 aircraft, which, according to TipRanks, citing statements from Safran, extends the effects until 2038, but higher margins are expected for the additional block. For 2026, Safran expects an FCF disadvantage of $2 billion, according to TipRanks. The impact on 2028 and 2029, on the other hand, is small, at around $385 million annually.
Despite the uncertainty, it was no surprise to the analyst that Boeing did not provide guidance for 2026. CFO Jay Malave has only been in office for a few months and is known for his cautious outlook. However, the analyst believes Boeing will “likely support the $10 billion FCF target, perhaps higher, but not commit to one year,” as quoted by TipRanks.
Why 2026 and 2029 could be crucial for Boeing shares
However, according to TipRanks, Safran is much more optimistic about the long-term outlook than the short-term weakness. The decisive years are 2028 and 2029, which are more important for the valuation of the company. The order situation remains strong, with an expected book-to-bill ratio of over 1. Boeing is “in an extended order cycle,” which should provide additional growth impulses from 2027.
In addition, the analyst sees no structural damage from the 5 billion burden. “We don’t think the strain actually affects the overall appeal of the BA story,” he is quoted as saying by TipRanks. Safran therefore continues to classify Boeing as “Buy” and sets a price target of $285, which corresponds to an upside potential of around 52 percent (as of the closing price on November 26, 2025).
Bettina Schneider / editorial team finanzen.net
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